Prorogation of Parliament.

[jim_l]

Point is, the graph below shows  how being in has affected the working men and women of Europe... We have more people working, for less money than ever before, we have in work poverty, in work food bank use, the rich poor divide accelerates. The EU has succeeded for corporations and the wealthy by being a low wage economy. 

 

The four freedoms for  corporations means:
a) Employ people for less than what is required to live (because if wages go up they move the work to somewhere in the EU where the minimum wage is 200 Euro a month)
b) Sell stuff where the minimum wages is 1500 Euro a month, and make billions out of it,
c) Slide the billions sideways to a no tax or low tax economy (free movement of capital, incl. your profits)
d) Leave the government (AKA you and I) trillions in debt from bridging the gap between what people are paid and what they need to live. 

 

The four freedoms for  working men and women means....oh yeah , I can go on holiday without a visa. 

 

[Steve (sdh2903)]

9 minutes ago, jim_l said:

We have more people working, for less money than ever before, we have in work poverty, in work food bank use, the rich poor divide accelerates. The EU has succeeded for corporations and the wealthy by being a low wage economy. 

 

And you expect this to change after leaving the EU 😂😂😂

 

No. Short term by leaving the EU with no deal we are losing, well disrupting, our biggest trading partner (over 45% of our exports go to the EU). Theres no way that amount will be sustained once tariffs are in place. We are already losing many manufacturing plants to eastern europe or Asia. This will just be accelerated further.

 

Plus we buy more from the EU than we sell. So things are going to naturally be more expensive. So your poor rich divide is only going to go one way.

[Alan France]

32 minutes ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

Plus we buy more from the EU than we sell. So things are going to naturally be more expensive.

 

Or we could make some of that stuff here.

[Steve (sdh2903)]

In an ideal world yes. Same as what trumpton is doing in the states. But We aren't geared up for it anymore. That's the issue. Most of our exports are in the services industry. Which are easily lost to the EU/elsewhere.

[jim_l]

Most likely in the short term Steve you are right, there may be a price to pay, but the chart shows a 40 year decline in the amount of what we make that ends up in people's pockets, do we let that continue indefinitely because of a short term impact? The fact that the EU is a low wage economy means we will never prosper AND will never be able to pay of our debt, all of our taxes are spent subsidising low wages. 

 

Your post also seems to assume that, because of tariffs, our exports to the EU will fall, but that our imports from the EU will stay the same, so everything will be more expensive - you can't have that argument both ways Steve.  The EU is a highly protectionist organisation, and sometimes that is a double whammy. Firstly, the EU uses 40% of its income to subsidise farmers (millionaires most of them) not for what they do, but just because the own land. Then we are tied into buying the produce of those farms , because the EU imposes tariffs up to 35% on agricultural products from elsewhere.  Cheaper Agricultural  products are available worldwide, and out of the EU we can avail ourselves of those. 

 

Most important though is - how long does a no-deal last?  They send us £1Bn of cars alone EVERY WEEK, and £1Bn of other goods EVERY DAY, so let us imagine some disruption, you know, all of the lorries parked on the M20.  I have some bad news for the French farmers - those lorries were the same lorries that, on their way back, would be bringing French farm produce, which is now rotting at the farm gate, while our supermarkets identify other sources, and may never go back!

 

We have a trade surplus with the rest of the world that has been blossoming for decades, we have a trade deficit with the EU that gets worse year on year, and Tariffs cost them more than they cost us. 

[Steve (sdh2903)]

35 minutes ago, jim_l said:

chart shows a 40 year decline in the amount of what we make that ends up in people's pockets, do we let that continue indefinitely because of a short term impact?

 

But how much of that has been caused directly by being an EU member vs the emergence of China and south east Asia as the massive manufacturers they've become and driving costs through the floor? It's easy to blame the EU without looking at the bigger picture.

 

35 minutes ago, jim_l said:

Your post also seems to assume that, because of tariffs, our exports to the EU will fall, but that our imports from the EU will stay the same, so everything will be more expensive - you can't have that argument both ways Steve

 

Our imports will largely stay the same I suspect as if we could make them here we would already. The fact is we cant compete cost base wise with eastern europe. Even with a tariff it will still be cheaper than building here in blighty.

 

As I've said 40% of our eu exports are services, financial sector etc rather than physical 'stuff'. Yes these may well stay as they are. But I suspect there will be some big incentives from the EU to relocate to the mainland once we leave the tea party.

 

35 minutes ago, jim_l said:

Cheaper Agricultural  products are available worldwide, and out of the EU we can avail ourselves of those. 

 

Very very true. However we are a little rock off the west tip of Europe. How does said produce from all over the world get here? Road? Nope too far. Boat? Nope too slow. Only option Is to fly it in. Do you know how much long haul air freight costs? I do, its eye watering and doesn't make much sense for low cost items. Those products will rapidly become more expensive than they are now.

 

It's so so easy to blame the EU for all of these issues but how much is actually proven to be true? As in fact? And in reality how much is down to the way we've gone as a country.

 

I agree it's not all one sided and the cars thing will be very interesting as we have an unhealthy obsession with german cars and no doubt there will be many other industries on the mainland sweating aswell.

 

But to simply state that the only benefit is non visa travel is incredulously short sighted. Yes I enjoy visa free travel. I enjoy driving right across europe without border posts and them accepting my EU driving licence. I enjoy working In europe and having Europeans work alongside me here. My mum is using medication that was developed in the UK alongside EU wide research and development. I like buying random crap off german  ebay when I've had a few beers and not having to pay the earth to import it. My mate enjoyed running his own business which 75% of his stuff goes to the EU (of which his sales are on the decline even before we leave). Etc etc.

 

Interesting times are ahead on boris island.

 

 

 

 

[jim_l]

On your first point  Steve - The thing about China and Asia as low cost manufacturers is we are 'somewhat' protected by tariffs, that quality standards are somewhat lower there, and the cost of transport (though you make a good point and there is no doubt something in what you say) 

 

Opening up the EU as a single market with the four freedoms though, created a (No Tariff) China in our backyard. The minimum wage in Bulgaria is about €200 a month, and there are many EU countries with a sub €500 Euro minimum wage. Now, if you are a manufacturer, or a service provider, where are you going to get the work done? Hence JLR cutting thousands of jobs here while building a new factory in Slovakia. The availability of cheaper labour on our doorstep, tariff free, can only have one effect!

 

What that means for corporations is that they can make it somewhere the minimum wage is sub €500 a month, sell it somewhere the Minimum wage is €1600, at great profit.  

 

Now - I haven't mentioned the real magic of the four freedoms for corporations yet!  Next they look at their profits and think, well where can I 'shift that to' where I will pay the least tax on it? the effective corporation tax paid by Apple in Ireland was identified by the EU as 0.005%.  If you think this is a stretch I have seen it done, 100 staff in the UK, 5 staff in Cork, every sale 'technically' made in Cork, all legal under EU law. 

 

(On a separate note I think we should stop trading with China, it is a dictatorship, with concentration camps and slave labour, and got where it is by ignoring intellectual property rights and WTO rules) 

 

BTW I do hope we are having this discussion in the light-hearted spirit I mean it - I am not a rabid Brexiteer, I VEHEMENTLY oppose Brexiteer positions on immigration, and in any case, I still don't believe we will leave!

[Steve (sdh2903)]

6 hours ago, jim_l said:

Now, if you are a manufacturer, or a service provider, where are you going to get the work done? Hence JLR cutting thousands of jobs here while building a new factory in Slovakia. The availability of cheaper labour on our doorstep, tariff free, can only have one effect!

 

Absolutely. But imagine now, theres also a tariff and ports in disarray to deal with. Just means even more incentive for  companies to relocate (and they already are)

 

6 hours ago, jim_l said:

BTW I do hope we are having this discussion in the light-hearted spirit I mean it

 

Absolutely 

[DamperMan]

On 01/09/2019 at 09:30, jim_l said:

 

(On a separate note I think we should stop trading with China, it is a dictatorship, with concentration camps and slave labour, and got where it is by ignoring intellectual property rights and WTO rules) 

 

 

Morally I agree.  It’s clear consumers can not be trusted to make this decision, and we often don’t get a decent opportunity to buy alternatives.   I like apple products, I think iPhones are good.   But they are made in China.     Folk by the droves go to the likes of Primart to by disposable fashion at low £ while the goods are made uneffically by people often exploited.   The UK/ Europe/ other large economies have enough buying clout to link into trade agreements minimum welfare, environmental and lots of ‘Soft’ factors not just dollars/euros/£....    

[Man On The Clapham Omnibus]

2 hours ago, DamperMan said:

 

Morally I agree.  It’s clear consumers can not be trusted to make this decision, and we often don’t get a decent opportunity to buy alternatives.   I like apple products, I think iPhones are good.   But they are made in China.     Folk by the droves go to the likes of Primart to by disposable fashion at low £ while the goods are made uneffically by people often exploited.   The UK/ Europe/ other large economies have enough buying clout to link into trade agreements minimum welfare, environmental and lots of ‘Soft’ factors not just dollars/euros/£....    

 

I tried for years to avoid anything from China. Back in the early days they tried to conceal the origins by using acronyms such as "PRC" rather than the current "Made in China" now people don't care and quality has improved. Now Chines goods are omnipresent in all market sectors it is virtually impossible to avoid them. I realise that my sad little protest makes the square root of SFA difference, but it clears my conscience.

[Blatman]

On 01/09/2019 at 09:30, jim_l said:

I still don't believe we will leave!

 

It's not a belief system, it was a referendum, and the majority voted to leave. Lets imagine this was a general election and Party A won by 52 - 48. Would you actually believe that despite the result, Party B should be in power? 

 

Believe what you will but in the last referendum that we really REALLY cared about, Leave won. Irrespective of belief or party or whatever machinations we hang our hats on, the result of a democratic election should, and indeed must be honoured.

 

To me any POLITICIAN who says "we can stop Brexit" should resign because they clearly and fundamentally do not believe in or understand how democracy works. 

[jeff oakley]

The problem is there is so much misinformation coming from the remain side that people are confused. We live in a parliamentary democracy, that is we the public give our votes for MP's to act on our behalf and that is true. However when they asked us for our vote in a "once in a lifetime decision" they gave democracy and the decision making power back to us and every party said they would honour that result and carry out the countries wishes. We have not given back that part to the MP's which is what those who want to stop Brexit do not get.

 

What is now happening is MP's who do not wish to do as instructed have tried every thing they can to stop it and as I see it they have succeeded in that aim. Now we have a PM who has no negotiating power with the EU, is being hounded by the "rebel alliance" and an opposition leader who does not want an election as he wants to enshrine in law that no PM can leave the EU without a deal. If he was confident of winning he would not need that in place.

 

In all my years I have never seen such underhand tactics and abuse of power against the will of the people. Just because remainers can muster shouty groups at the drop of a hat does not mean they represent the will of the people, the only measure of that was the referendum. 

 

Where we go from here is anyone's guess but I suspect there will be tactical voting like never before and this will be followed by another referendum which will be upheld if we vote to stay and ignored again if we vote to leave, or more likely the question will be so ambiguous and stacked that leave will be unable to win.

 

However you voted and I respect everyone's choice, the way our parliament has acted is shameful.    

[Man On The Clapham Omnibus]

13 hours ago, Blatman said:

 

It's not a belief system, it was a referendum, and the majority voted to leave. Lets imagine this was a general election and Party A won by 52 - 48. Would you actually believe that despite the result, Party B should be in power? 

 

Believe what you will but in the last referendum that we really REALLY cared about, Leave won. Irrespective of belief or party or whatever machinations we hang our hats on, the result of a democratic election should, and indeed must be honoured.

 

To me any POLITICIAN who says "we can stop Brexit" should resign because they clearly and fundamentally do no believe in or understand how democracy works. 

 

It's the Liberal (?) Democrats that state as an election promise that they want to overturn the democratically arrived at result! They don't seem to see the oxymoron in their party name.

[Alan France]

Just look at the way the remainer Hammond agreed funds with the European Investment Bank (EIB) in the withdrawal agreement.

 

Our Capital and retained earnings held in the EIB is £11b. Hammond agreed we would take back just £3.5b when we leave. The other £7.6b is retained by the EU for the benefit of the other 27 members. That £3.5b will be repaid to us over 12 years, the final payment due in 2030 AND no interest will be paid over that period.

 

This from a chancellor who was trying to find money for public services. Anyone else seen that reported in the remain press or TV?

[AdamR]

Nope.

 

Anyone seen anything factual reported from either remain or leave camps?

 

Didn't think so

 

 

I think the Lib Dems want a second referendum because they are (seemingly) the only party who currently look at evidence to make decisions. Things have changed in 3 years. People are entitled to change their minds. I can't honestly believe that anyone sane who voted to leave in June 2016 would have done so had that been a choice between 'remain' and 'no deal'. The picture painted by the leave camp was quite a pretty one, the reality was never going to be as such.