Government consider quarantining people who arrive in UK from abroad.

[jim_l]

50 minutes ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

For starters the cause of our initial infections was not through 'Spanish holidays'. Feb/Mar is the lowest season for spanish mainland holidays.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734

 

33% from Spain, 80% in all from Spain, France and Italy, practically none from China.

 

57 minutes ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

I dont criticise them for taking action. But the canary islands are 1000km from the mainland and have a lower infection rate than we do. So wheres the logic in that?

 

Because  it isn't the current 'known' numbers that matter,  we are asking them them to guess/predict actual numbers, and the next two weeks numbers. Wave 1 was in the country long before we knew it, the seeds of wave 2 could be on their way, or here, from these Spanish holidays.   If I see numbers in Spain start to rise day on day, then I look at the curve from wave 1,  I need to have reacted yesterday. 

 

Just my opinion, 

 

Jim

 

[DonPeffers]

UK's first reported covid case was 29 jan 2020. 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53106444  "Coronavirus was already in Italy by December, waste water study finds.  The National Institute of Health (ISS) said water from Milan and Turin showed genetic virus traces on 18 December 2019".

 

"In May French scientists said tests on samples showed a patient treated for suspected pneumonia near Paris on 27 December 2019 actually had the coronavirus. Meanwhile in Spain a study found virus traces in waste water collected in mid-January in Barcelona, some 40 days before the first local case was discovered."

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/  shows UK Coronavirus Cases  300,692,  Deaths 45,878 which as a simple ratio would give a fatality rate of 15.2% which doesn't seem right.

https://covid19.who.int/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIyM7o0q3y6gIVD-vtCh3UOQDvEAAYASAAEgKMhvD_BwE  WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard

Global Situation  16,523,815 confirmed cases,  655,112 deaths gives 3.9% fatality rate, with USA having 3.46% rate very similar to Portugal.

 

It is unclear why UK rate is higher and could be down to many asymptomatic cases, or mild cases not presenting for treatment and not being tested.

 

I guess forensic virologists and statisticians will be at the numbers for a while yet.

 

[Arm]

Good set of data there Don . 

[Mark Stanton]

I'd just like to thank Arm for putting the image of Blatters and a tub of Nivea in my head 🤢🙄🙈 ........ just not right on so many levels.

 

Always preferred Greece for some summer sun holidays 👍  All sorted for end of September, once the rugrats have gone back to school (unless our glorious teachers throw their Teddys from the pram) and stopped spreading their germs.

 

Giving the delights of Benidorm, Magaluf and Salou roast beef dinners a miss for another 40 years 🤪

[maurici]

1 hour ago, Mark Stanton said:

Benidorm, Magaluf and Salou

 

Covid situatuation aside, really infuriates me to see how many brits reduce Spain to this 3 places that precisely are as **** as they are because the youngsters brits use them to misschief... 

 

If you think that Costa del Sol is only Benidorm, Mallorca is reduced to Magaluf Sun and Sand, and Catalunya is Salou... you are massively wrong. 

 

😞😞

 

 

 

[Arm]

Is it not ?

 

 

😉

[jim_l]

If the first awareness of the virus in people in Italy was two Chinese tourists in Rome on the 31st Jan, then reports of the virus in waste water in Italy in December leave me a little sceptical, that would feed right into Chinese conspiracy theories wouldn’t it? Governments worldwide would certainly be interested, but it has gone quiet?

In the light of the report I linked to above, the date of the first case in the UK is not really significant in the extent of the outbreak in the UK.  To put the brakes on the UK outbreak we would have had to stop people coming from France and Spain in March, or Italy late Feb. 

 

We mustn’t miss what we missed then, that actual cases could easily be ten or more times what is being reported, so if Spain reports a rise to 2000 cases a day, what is the real number? If 10 people test positive coming back to the UK from Spain how many more are there, and where are they.

 

It will be a while, agreed, before we see anything robust about the case fatality rate, they could be an order magnitude out until we find a way to establish how many actual infections.  

 

 

[Kingster]

1 hour ago, maurici said:

 

Covid situatuation aside, really infuriates me to see how many brits reduce Spain to this 3 places that precisely are as **** as they are because the youngsters brits use them to misschief... 

 

If you think that Costa del Sol is only Benidorm, Mallorca is reduced to Magaluf Sun and Sand, and Catalunya is Salou... you are massively wrong. 

 

😞😞

 

 

 

I agree - take Ibiza for example. It’s a stunning island but we often just think of it purely in terms of the San Antonio rave scene. 
 

Sadly us Brits abroad can often be complete knobheads. 

[Ian Kinder (Bagpuss) - Joint Peak District AO]

5 minutes ago, Chris King - Webmaster and Joint North East AO said:

I agree - take Ibiza for example. It’s a stunning island but we often just think of it purely in terms of the San Antonio rave scene. 
 

Sadly us Brits abroad can often be complete knobheads. 

plenty don't need to go abroad, to prove that either 

[Mark Stanton]

Quote

If you think that Costa del Sol is only Benidorm, Mallorca is reduced to Magaluf Sun and Sand, and Catalunya is Salou... you are massively wrong

Quote

 

 

That's why I inserted only Benidorm, Salou and Magaluf as names, for me, not to visit 😉  Been to Spain a number of times - Catyluna is a stunning - despite a few not so scenic towns being present - No worries for conclusions to be jumped to ....... sssshhhh also got a holiday booked to Spain for 2021 😉  no all day breakfast and roast beef dinners though 😇    Sadly its not just youngsters that have ruined Spain in certain areas - its a few old uns to and lets not forget the part the Spainish play in accepting the coin to allow it to happen 

[DonPeffers]

6 hours ago, jim_l said:

If the first awareness of the virus in people in Italy was two Chinese tourists in Rome on the 31st Jan, then reports of the virus in waste water in Italy in December leave me a little sceptical, that would feed right into Chinese conspiracy theories wouldn’t it? Governments worldwide would certainly be interested, but it has gone quiet?

In the light of the report I linked to above, the date of the first case in the UK is not really significant in the extent of the outbreak in the UK.  To put the brakes on the UK outbreak we would have had to stop people coming from France and Spain in March, or Italy late Feb. 

 

We mustn’t miss what we missed then, that actual cases could easily be ten or more times what is being reported, so if Spain reports a rise to 2000 cases a day, what is the real number? If 10 people test positive coming back to the UK from Spain how many more are there, and where are they.

 

It will be a while, agreed, before we see anything robust about the case fatality rate, they could be an order magnitude out until we find a way to establish how many actual infections.  

 

 

I'm assuming 31 Jan 2020 as first awareness of virus in Italy relates to reported illness and subjects being tested. Same with 29 Jan 2020 first UK known case.

 

Although there may be no, as yet, known transmission from these cases it could well be that there many but remained asymptomatic or mild symptoms and never presented for testing.

 

Italy's figures are similar to ours showing  Coronavirus Cases 246,776, Deaths 35,129 giving a fatality rate of 14.2%.

 

Of course these high percentage fatality rates for UK, Italy would reduce a lot if there had been large numbers with the virus but not presenting thus not included in the ratio calculation.. 

[Arm]

I am critical of the limited testing done and slow ramp up. I don't know why it's low apparently in comparison to other countries. 

[Blatman]

33 minutes ago, Arm said:

I am critical of the limited testing done and slow ramp up. I don't know why it's low apparently in comparison to other countries. 

 

I'm guessing availability of reliable test kits has a bit to do with it, bearing in mind that NONE actually existed until March or thereabouts...

 

15 hours ago, Mark Stanton said:

I'd just like to thank Arm for putting the image of Blatters and a tub of Nivea in my head 🤢🙄🙈 ........ just not right on so many levels.

 

Always preferred grease

 

Fixed that for you Mr S.  

[DonPeffers]

18 hours ago, Arm said:

I am critical of the limited testing done and slow ramp up. I don't know why it's low apparently in comparison to other countries. 

16 jul 2020 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/16/uk-government-orders-halt-randox-covid-19-tests-over-safety-issues  "UK government orders halt to Randox Covid-19 tests over safety issues. Care homes and members of public told to immediately stop using firm’s kits".

 

Randox supplied 16% of UK testing capacity and some care homes on TV now saying they have waited 5 weeks and still no tests yet!

 

18 July 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-18/covid-most-of-world-to-face-virus-without-vaccine-expert-says

 

Interesting interview with ex-WHO virologist Klaus Stohr who left the WHO to join drugmaker Novartis AG in 2007 (now retired).

 

He's hopeful for a vaccine by early 2021 but says there won't be enough doses to treat the entire world; at least for a while.

 

A quote from Klaus Stohr  “It’s not the vaccine that’s going to end the pandemic. The virus will end this pandemic by burning every piece of dry wood it will find”.

 

So the clear message is take good care of your wood.

[Blatman]

4 minutes ago, DonPeffers said:

So the clear message is take good care of your wood.

 

There's definitely a pill for that...