Ban of petrol and diesel (only) cars from 2030

[Two7]

I suspect carrot and stick will be used to migrate us to EV.  Road tax / VED / whatever it will be called will rise very rapidly over next 10 years to nudge us to trade in the gas burners, while you get a Scrappage deal to make it more palatable buying an EV.  Unfortunately the big hole in the tax income will mean all the EV drivers will start paying some sort of tax to make up the shortfall, after all they will be wearing out the roads just like the ICE drivers.  That will probably be a pay per mile system which means the range issue goes away, since most of us will think twice about travelling more than 20 miles a day if it starts costing 10p, 20p, 50p, £1 a mile if you do more than 6000 miles a year. We can't keep building ever more roads for ever greater numbers of cars whether ICE or EV, so perhaps the 2030 EV goal is a stepping stone to fewer personal cars on the road.  Grim prospect for somebody who has kit cars and a campervan habit.

[nice_guy]

58 minutes ago, Blatman said:

 

The bit missing here is that a modern smartphone can garner enough charge to last "the rest of the journey" if you will, quite quickly. EV's not so much.

 

 

Mobile phones are roughly twenty years old. Quickcharge thanks to usb C and voltage wizardry appeared circa two years ago if I'm not too wrong.

I used to picture range anxiety as a youthlenial desperately holding a white charging wire, looking for an available usb slot in an airport terminal, visibly undergoing the agony of the red battery bar.

 

I'm led to believe for non-tesla propositions the charging "thing" is still a hassle, to put it lightly. I think it'll evolve over time. It's worded with a lot more skill than I would ever do in this video.

 

 

58 minutes ago, Blatman said:

Taking a 200 mile range EV to my most visited place of work in Holland, (just across the border from Belgium in actual fact) could/would take more than double the 8 hours it takes now. Even in 10 years time, that's not a viable business travel time.

 

Probably would take not much more with a tesla long range device & charger network in its current state, but it would be an VERY expensive choice vs fossil fuel powered car if you do 8 hours trip on a regular basis with current offer. And you'd have a 70% chance of turning into an electric monk.

 

(I would use public transport - plane or rail - for such journeys : that's already not a viable business travel time in my industry)

[Blatman]

Quote

Mobile phones are roughly twenty years old. Quickcharge thanks to usb C and voltage wizardry appeared circa two years ago if I'm not too wrong.

 

So we agree that "quick-charge" has been around for at least two years yet it's deployment to a market that would remove one of the biggest blockers to it's wider adoption is poor?

 

I don't drive to Holland that often, but enough. I usually fly and then take a train. The plane/train takes the same amount of time but costs a truck load more given that the drive is done in a modern diesel car. If I am forced to trade the car for an EV, then I'll be flying all the time, and I'm sure I'm not the only one for whom the EV option is just simply not viable with current technology. Roll on Hydrogen fuel cells, then we can get serious.

[Man On The Clapham Omnibus]

9 hours ago, Blatman said:

 

The bit missing here is that a modern smartphone can garner enough charge to last "the rest of the journey" if you will, quite quickly. EV's not so much.

 

Taking a 200 mile range EV to my most visited place of work in Holland, (just across the border from Belgium in actual fact) could/would take more than double the 8 hours it takes now. Even in 10 years time, that's not a viable business travel time.

Unless the obvious next step of mandated standard battery ranges is implemented and freshly charged batteries of whatever size your particular car requires can be slotted in to the car in minutes at the re-imagined old petrol station sites. It used to work with horses, so why not cars?

[nice_guy]

5 hours ago, Blatman said:

 

So we agree that "quick-charge" has been around for at least two years yet it's deployment to a market that would remove one of the biggest blockers to it's wider adoption is poor?

 

I just implied that it took a long time for it to hit the market. It took hungry phones to the masses. And usb adapters are not even included in the box.

Lithium cells have been charged rather promptly in the RC world for ages. Superchargers were planted 10 years ago. The technology is there.

 

 

5 hours ago, Blatman said:

If I am forced to trade the car for an EV, then I'll be flying all the time, and I'm sure I'm not the only one for whom the EV option is just simply not viable with current technology. Roll on Hydrogen fuel cells, then we can get serious.

 

Do you feel forced to use some form of automatic gearbox ? They were power hungry slushboxes, then unreliable brutal electro automated manual, then dual clutch, and now they became so good they're everywhere (and they allow cars to pass through emission tests, too).  I believe EV will experience the same evolution.

(Yet, full disclaimer, I still hate them, and I bought what probably is the last of an extinct breed : a frugal estate with a clutch pedal, probably my last ICE as what one may call a "daily")

 

I believe electric powertrain (on the whole, non just the thing in the car) will go down the same route.

The tech is there, it's been there for 20 years in the RC world.

It's not been deployed for a lot of reasons (legacy car manufacturers not really buying in the thing until recently, public infrastructure need public investment and, well you know how it goes).

 

I'm not what one may call a tesla fan, but it's been done privately, the charging network makes it "viable" in terms of user experience. It's probably ten years ahead of what "mundane motorist" will experience, as an S class is 10 years ahead in terms of features. It'll trickle down/everywhere over time.

 

Hydrogen / fuel comes with a lot of constraints, and the tech is not ready yet (whereas the lithium battery has been there for 20 years).

Tech exists, but it takes a lot of time for a reluctant industry (see all the flak tesla got from legacy car manufacturers) to get it done properly.

 

Prices will come down, as it is the case in china (lots of new car companies, not bearing the burden legacy car manufacturers seem unable to shake off). Because the scale makes it viable (and incentives to get an EV there are quite... strong ?)

 

We'll probably see for ages a lot of twitter science implying CO2 teaspoons per yard or some kind of greenwashed rubbish. And evolutions over battery tech. And a lot of obsolete cars (the irony of a """green""" car like a gen 1 leaf being scrapped because everything new is way better) and tech (cars batteries being given a second life as stationary power sponges, but what happens when they're actually unsuitable for static use ?)

 

So to me the tech is there, has been for twenty years, yet it takes a while for a whole reluctant industry / infrastructure to be deployed.

 

Lithium took over the RC world because it was better, not because it was forced by emission thingies.

[johnev]

10 hours ago, Blatman said:

Taking a 200 mile range EV to my most visited place of work in Holland, (just across the border from Belgium in actual fact) could/would take more than double the 8 hours it takes now. Even in 10 years time, that's not a viable business travel time.

I have to admit that is a long commute. "Even in 10 years" - I know of several BEV cars in development now with a 600 mile range with a 1 hour recharge giving a 500 mile top up. With that sort of range, your bladder and stomach will dictate the number of stops you make.

[Onliest Smeg David]

How far can you get on a charge John @johnev

[nice_guy]

3 hours ago, Man On The Clapham Omnibus said:

Unless the obvious next step of mandated standard battery ranges is implemented and freshly charged batteries of whatever size your particular car requires can be slotted in to the car in minutes at the re-imagined old petrol station sites. It used to work with horses, so why not cars?

 

I think it's going to be car swapping (like the horses of old) rather than battery swapping.

Makes a lot of sense in a "pay as you drive" self service rental-ish model. You pay for an individual transportation service, not for owning a car. I'm not sure if such a business model is viable in the short term... But I believe the overhead of a fleet of smaller range cars waiting to be used would be better than a 600 mile range car "for going on vacation twice a year" in each driveway, considering ressource, yield and weight.

 

[johnev]

1 hour ago, Dave (OnliestSmeg) - Manchester AO said:

How far can you get on a charge John

Busted !! Only 30 miles on the road at the moment - it has a small 10 year old battery lightened for sprinting. It's knackered actually and needs replacing.

[Man On The Clapham Omnibus]

59 minutes ago, nice_guy said:

 

I think it's going to be car swapping (like the horses of old) rather than battery swapping.

Makes a lot of sense in a "pay as you drive" self service rental-ish model. You pay for an individual transportation service, not for owning a car. I'm not sure if such a business model is viable in the short term... But I believe the overhead of a fleet of smaller range cars waiting to be used would be better than a 600 mile range car "for going on vacation twice a year" in each driveway, considering ressource, yield and weight.

 

Interesting extrapolation of the battery swap idea. An adult 'Boris Bikes' concept. Might work but will need a change of mindset for users.

[Blatman]

3 hours ago, johnev said:

I have to admit that is a long commute. "Even in 10 years" - I know of several BEV cars in development now with a 600 mile range with a 1 hour recharge giving a 500 mile top up. With that sort of range, your bladder and stomach will dictate the number of stops you make.

 

Thankfully it's not every week and apart from the enforced stop at the tunnel, neither bladder not stomach dictate stops between Calais and the site / hotel in Holland.

[Blatman]

5 hours ago, nice_guy said:

Yet, full disclaimer, I still hate them, and I bought what probably is the last of an extinct breed : a frugal estate with a clutch pedal, probably my last ICE as what one may call a "daily")

 

Never bought an auto in my life and I'm not going to start now...

I am about to buy a replacement for my ancient but eminently lovable diesel Focus, likely a diesel 2 series bimmer, manual of course and I'll be fitting an ATB to it if it's not too difficult a swap, just 'cos..  

Forced may be too strong a word. Coerced, by dint of tax imposed or fuel station scarcity or whatever. Either way I'm holding out and holding on to every ICE I can for as long as I can... stubborn beyond reason would be the appropriate adjective pairing...

[nice_guy]

2 hours ago, Man On The Clapham Omnibus said:

Interesting extrapolation of the battery swap idea. An adult 'Boris Bikes' concept. Might work but will need a change of mindset for users.

 

Not owning the ressources you use but rent the service is something that had a bit of traction, cloud computing is an example. You don't buy a server machine, operating system and software licence, you just use it and pay as you go.

 

For cars it would be a much more interesting problem, because bond, and also, the bicycles are moved around on trailers to cope with one way trips, would be a diffrent logistics with cars.

 

Cloud computing is often cheaper and more practical than buying the damn thing, transportation as a service would need to come to this point too.

 

[Blatman]

3 hours ago, nice_guy said:

Cloud computing is often cheaper and more practical

 

Not sure cloud computing is a good example. My recent experience of it suggests that scale is required to make it "cheaper" and even then, from my admittedly limited view, ROI is far longer. The other selling point for a business is that costs for cloud move from CapEx to OpEx. That simple folio jiggery-pokery has an impact as well and is not to be underestimated. Yes cloud is eminently practical and rapid deployment and endless scalability are selling points, but not for the man-in-the-street. Not even close.

 

The pay-as-you-play model is, for my money, more an ambition for the company than The Man on the Clapham Omnibus. Recurring income streams where the customer is locked in for a number of months is something a company aspires to and it's easy to see why. The argument is that gas/electric/phone and, with the advent of DD payments, insurance, road tax, TV license, etc etc are (more or less) subscription models so why not everything else? Because this works less well for many many personal items and I don't believe works for personal transport. Using "someone elses" battery is a bit like using bowling shoes, or picking up a half eaten sandwich. I'd rather not...

[SootySport]

16 hours ago, nice_guy said:

because everything new is way better) and tech (cars batteries being given a second life as stationary power sponges, but what happens when they're actually unsuitable for static use ?)

 

 

 

EV batteries are recycled, not just the lithium, the whole package is 85% recyclable and the residual  charge in the batteries is used to power the process.