Coronavirus Act and Tory rebels.

[Captain Colonial]

I’ve always thought it unbelievably laughable that any government thinks it can trust the people to do the right thing voluntarily when our track record in that respect is dire, as demonstrated regularly at polling stations.  You can’t trust us unless we’re forced to do it and even then you have to fine us.

 

Then again, when you get elected politicians telling you to wear a mask on public transport and not doing it themselves and unelected advisors thinking they’re above the official advice and taking eye tests by driving 50 miles, getting non-compliance is hardly a surprise, is it?

 

As I’ve said before - I like humanity; it’s people I can’t stand.

[DonPeffers]

The OP was about differing views on oversight within the Tory party and Parliamentary democracy.

 

Opinions differ on timing of a second covid wave..

23sep 2020   https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8689021/There-no-second-wave-UK-Oxford-expert-says.html

"Professor Carl Heneghan said there is no second wave happening yet in the UK and hospitals should not expect to see the same levels of infection they did in March and April". "'There is no sign of a second wave': Experts rubbish Matt Hancock's warning a surge in Covid-19 hospitalisations is coming - as they put UK's rise in cases down to better testing finding 'young, healthy, symptomless people' who are unlikely to die".

 

23sep 2020  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8747175/Covid-19-24th-common-cause-death-England-month.html

"Covid-19 was the 24th most common cause of death in England last month as official data reveals August was the LEAST deadly month since 2000".

"Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows Covid-19 accounted for a mere 1.4 per cent of all deaths last month - just 482 out of 34,000".

 

Hospital admissions are rising BUT a piece of data I was hoping to get from Monday's briefing from the scientists was missing; namely the spread of age/ethnicity/underlying conditions within these covid case hospitalisations.

 

 

 

[DonPeffers]

   22 sep 2020  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274  "

"Cases and hospital admissions now rising

The government announced 4,926 new coronavirus cases in the UK on Tuesday.

Cases began edging up again in July and recent days have seen the highest daily cases since May, prompting the reintroduction of restrictions on social gatherings across the UK.

The UK government has announced a further tightening of restrictions in England from Thursday, including a 22:00 closing time for pubs and restaurants, and stated the new rules could stay in place for up to six months."

 

"However the BBC's Health correspondent Nick Triggle says there is disagreement among the government's group of advisers over whether what we are seeing is the start of an exponential rise, or just a gradual increase in cases."

 

I'm with Sir Graham Brady and let's have some Parliamentary discussions on the way forward especially as the scientists cannot agree.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jim_l]

There were no signs if the first wave, except exactly what we are seeing now,  Europe wide and local upward trends in cases. 

 

There is no sign of a second wave except my local hospital going from single figures to over 50 in a week.  

 

Why is the spread of age/ethnicity/underlying conditions within these hospitalisations relevant,  nobody bothered last time, we just totted them up and fired them squarely at the government "we are the worst and it is your fault because you acted too slowly"  Beggars belief that we now criticise them for being cautious , Beggars belief that we might think the  age/ethnicity/underlying conditions of the victims would affect whether we bother controlling the spread or not. 

 

 

1 hour ago, DonPeffers said:

"Covid-19 was the 24th most common cause of death in England last month

This frustrates me, month after month of charts comparing Covid with other killers , except in the weeks when it was our biggest cause of death, they went quiet then.   

 

We quickly forget that we have had Covid in a cage, and with access to perhaps 10% of the  population it has killed 40,000 people. It is like a zookeeper saying "that lion has only killed three people since we caged it, we should let it out" 

 

Where Covid was in the table of killers in August means absolutely nothing, just as it did in Feb and March. We have tasked the government with assessing what might be the situation in 6 or 8 weeks, and acting accordingly, while still waving a big stick at them in case their crystal ball fails. 

 

Jim

 

 

[jim_l]

35 minutes ago, DonPeffers said:

there is disagreement among the government's group of advisers over whether what we are seeing is the start of an exponential rise, or just a gradual increase in cases

 

Oh let's just wait and see then? 

[Mighty Mart]

Charts showing this and that and figures giving polar opposites are easy to post, as are quotes from various Scientists who disagree with the latest thinking....

 

The Government, whoever they are, Tory, Labour or Raving Loonie have to hope for the best but plan for the worst.....

 

The Country is going to become ever more divided over this....

 

Businesses on their knees and god knows what will happen to the economy in general up to Christmas. 

 

IMHO the Government has tried to do the best with the information given to them by the (majority of ) experts, but even they don't all agree.

 

I fear that this isn't going away anytime soon and if a vaccine isn't found for another 6 months, I really cannot see how this is going to end?

 

On the radio today, there were calls from the public to start going back to normal and whoever dies dies.....

 

I really don't envy whoever is Governing currently - a real poison chalice!

 

Mart.

[DonPeffers]

23 hours ago, jim_l said:

Why is the spread of age/ethnicity/underlying conditions within these hospitalisations relevant,  nobody bothered last time, we just totted them up and fired them squarely at the government "we are the worst and it is your fault because you acted too slowly"  Beggars belief that we now criticise them for being cautious ,

 

Beggars belief that we might think the  age/ethnicity/underlying conditions of the victims would affect whether we bother controlling the spread or not. 

 

Jim

 

 

 

Who are you directly quoting in the underlined comment above? Please provide the full quote for context.

 

Who suggested bothering to control the covid-19 virus would be based on age/ethnicity/underlying conditions?

 

23 sep 2020 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-lockdown-today-rules-boris-johnson-cases-deaths-latest-b546831.html

"UK coronavirus cases reach highest level since 1 May

Coronavirus (new) cases in the UK have hit 6,178, according to the latest government statistics.

It is the highest daily level since 1 May when the UK was in lockdown."

 

I'm happy to view covid charts.

 

Trying to make sense of the stats. is the big increase in new cases because of increased testing? Are many new cases older persons or already vulnerable? How is the spread occurring?

BBC news 3 days ago stated only 20% of those told to self-isolate by test and trace actually did so.....and Sky news stated test and trace were successful in tracing 61 out of 100 potentially infected contacts. 20% of 61% means 12 out of every 100 self-isolate satisfactorily and I'm happy to acknowledge that is a human failing and not Government fault but it does signify a big problem whereby the virus can spread.

 

What is the Gov. fault is having such a weak and ineffective test, trace, isolate system having announced it would be world-beating by end of June 2020.

 

Regarding experts, remember Professor Ferguson?......he predicted Sweden's 'no full lockdown' would lead to 90,000 deaths but it is currently 5876 deaths which is an increase of 36 from 01 sep to 23 sep 2020.

Sweden also recently showing new covid hospitalisation big increases.

 

England & Wales (Apple) test and trace app. launches tomorrow and hopefully many will use it. Scotland's app launched 10 sep 2020 has been downloaded 1 Mn times. Sadly there is the possibility that youngsters may not download for fear of having to self-isolate, lose wages, not be able to socialise and with the threat of a £1,000 fine now applying for breaches of self-isolation.

 

Nobody said it would be easy.

[Nick Algar - Competition Secretary]

I don't know what the right route is, it's certainly very concerning and I'm just pleased it's not me having to make these decisions. As to more debate in Parliament, sounds great, but watching how they carry on all the seem to want to do is score petty little points off each other rather than have a grown up debate. How come England, Scotland & Wales all seem to be going about this slightly differently  So really what's the point, the country is a war with a Virus, but scoring petty points is key to the opposition parties, well about sums Parliament up really.

[Alan France]

6 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

 

 

 

 

As pointed out in a letter to the Telegraph this is a rather loaded graph to illustrate concern. If cases doubled EVERY week the entire UK population would have Covid by Christmas.

[jim_l]

2 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

Who are you directly quoting in the underlined comment above? Please provide the full quote for context.

It is in quote marks because that is what the opposition and the press have been repeatedly saying to the government, a view you share if I understand your posts on the matter?  To castigate the government for not reacting quickly enough then, now to suggest they are being too cautious, well!

 

2 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

Who suggested bothering to control the covid-19 virus would be based on age/ethnicity/underlying conditions?

You referred to age/ethnicity/underlying conditions in this thread several times Don, about the UK, and about Spain – it doesn’t fit into any discussion about government oversight unless you are suggesting knowing that would modify the government approach?

 

 

2 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

What is the Gov. fault is having such a weak and ineffective test, trace, isolate system having announced it would be world-beating by end of June 2020.

a)    I don’t think there is an effective system in the world outside of a police state,  countries that have one live don’t have enough signed up to make it work (happy to be corrected)

b)    You said it yourself above, it doesn’t work if people don’t buy in, why make it your priority, why throw resources at it.

 

Hospitalisations are going up, that isn’t because of increased testing, and the demographics are irrelevant, anyone getting that sick with it, if they survive, faces a lifetime of damage to the lungs and cardiovascular system.

 

As you quoted, we don’t know if what we are seeing is the start of an exponential rise, or just a gradual increase in cases.   If it is the start of an exponential rise and we ignore it, then we are looking at very bleak winter.   I am broadly supportive of the government's firm touch of the brakes, I can't see another way that makes sense. 

 

Jim

 

[Arm]

Good summary Jim

[Steve (sdh2903)]

1 hour ago, jim_l said:

am broadly supportive of the government's firm touch of the brakes, I can't see another way that makes sense

 

Do you honestly think this is a firm touch of the brakes? 

 

I think it's a very light brush on the pedal at best. Particularly in England. 

[Blatman]

7 hours ago, Mighty Mart said:

On the radio today, there were calls from the public to start going back to normal and whoever dies dies.....

 

That one crazy woman on the Jeremy Vine show? She's hardly representative of the majority of the population. She was so barking I think she needs an intervention...

 

2 hours ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

Do you honestly think this is a firm touch of the brakes? 

 

I think it's a very light brush on the pedal at best. Particularly in England. 

 

If they went all in there would be huge complaints about heavy handedness. NO-ONE wants another full lockdown for all the obvious reasons. So if we stipulate that the government are doing the minimum possible to strike a balance and cases continue to go up, who do the people blame. Tacitly the government are trying to keep as many people happy as possible, failing (of course...) and yet the people are the ones directly responsible. The crushing irony is it is the mask deniers and "civil liberties" lot who, by refusing to to comply are likely to be the cause and yet they apparently blindly refuse to accept what seems to be bl**** obvious.

 

[Blatman]

[Steve (sdh2903)]

10 hours ago, Blatman said:

If they went all in there would be huge complaints about heavy handedness. NO-ONE wants another full lockdown for all the obvious reasons. So if we stipulate that the government are doing the minimum possible to strike a balance and cases continue to go up, who do the people blame. Tacitly the government are trying to keep as many people happy as possible, failing (of course...) and yet the people are the ones directly responsible. The crushing irony is it is the mask deniers and "civil liberties" lot who, by refusing to to comply are likely to be the cause and yet they apparently blindly refuse to accept what seems to be bl**** obvious.

 

No I fully get that. I was merely surprised that anyone would refer to the current new restrictions as a 'firm touch of the brakes'.