Tory leadership race.

[DonPeffers]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1132901/tory-leadership-contest-candidates-boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-next-prime-minister-brexit

 

HEADLINE  "Tory leadership race: Where the 11 candidates REALLY stand on Brexit - REVEALED"

 

Of course the headline assumes we can trust what they declare!!

 

[Captain Colonial]

Not one MP at Westminster can be believed or trusted.  Not a one.  Crooks, liars and thieves, every one of them.  The whole thing has been a supreme waste of time.  Bojo is a reprehensible human being on every front, but not one of them can deliver Brexit in any form.  May was undone by a bunch of well-dressed self-serving power hungry berks who weren’t prepared to negotiate to get the best deal and only have their own benefit in mind and couldn’t care less about the public.  Worst joke ever. 

 

Monty Python said it best (apologies for the caps):

 

WE WOULD LIKE TO APOLOGIZE FOR THE WAY IN WHICH POLITICIANS ARE REPRESENTED IN THIS PROGRAMME. IT WAS NEVER OUR INTENTION TO IMPLY THAT POLITICIANS ARE WEAK-KNEED, POLITICAL TIME-SERVERS WHO ARE CONCERNED MORE WITH THEIR PERSONAL VENDETTAS AND PRIVATE POWER STRUGGLES THAN THE PROBLEMS OF GOVERNMENT, NOR TO SUGGEST AT ANY POINT THAT THEY SACRIFICE THEIR CREDIBILITY BY DENYING FREE DEBATE ON VITAL MATTERS IN THE MISTAKEN IMPRESSION THAT PARTY UNITY COMES BEFORE THE WELL-BEING OF THE PEOPLE THEY SUPPOSEDLY REPRESENT NOR TO IMPLY AT ANY STAGE THAT THEY ARE SQUABBLING LITTLE TOADIES WITHOUT AN OUNCE OF CONCERN FOR THE VITAL SOCIAL PROBLEMS OF TODAY. NOR INDEED DO WE INTEND THAT VIEWERS SHOULD CONSIDER THEM AS CRABBY ULCEROUS LITTLE SELF-SEEKING VERMIN WITH FURRY LEGS AND AN EXCESSIVE ADDICTION TO ALCOHOL AND CERTAIN EXPLICIT SEXUAL PRACTICES WHICH SOME PEOPLE MIGHT FIND OFFENSIVE.

 

WE ARE SORRY IF THIS IMPRESSION HAS COME ACROSS.

[Blatman]

It's a non-race. BoJo is likely to win. The rest are positioning for high up cabinet jobs when they necessarily have to drop out and are looking to horse trade their supporters in exchange for....

 

BoJo winning doesn't change the Brexit issues much except we'll have a PM who favours getting out with either a negotiated deal or on WTO rules.

There is no such thing as a "no deal" Brexit. WTO rules are a deal, a long standing deal with which we trade with other countries already.

 

And whilst I'm in my high horse (again) all the "no deal will be a disaster" politicos are forgetting when we got in to the EU in 72, the consequence was we could trade without tariffs with France, Germany etc etc, and they could trade with us without tariffs. This, along with Red Robbo pretty much destroyed the UK car manufacturing business, along with many others I'm sure.

[jeff oakley]

The thing I find the saddest from all this is the way politicians have ignored the wishes and fear of the public all over the EU. The we know best attitude and describing people who are concerned as "that bigoted old woman" Gordon Brown that was  and similar has opened up the door for right wing groups who are sowing disharmony. 

 

It was the same tactics that Hitler used, blame the Jews then and guess what here we are again and Jews are being singled out as somehow responsible for everything and whilst everyone is fighting amongst themselves they snatch the real power they craved. 

 

Politics will never be the same as what little trust that there was has gone and will never return. We can look forward to minority groups, like the Greens, holding immense power as others scramble to cobble a working coalition together and the deals are ven shadier. 

 

I agree BOJO will probably win as he has appeal to a lot of voters who see him as blunt, none PC even flawed which others are not. I think it was his Dad who said never confuse buffoonery with  stupidity. A bit like a pantomime character he comes on says stupid things and people love him. Will he make the best PM, not a chance but might he heel rifts with his party and the public just maybe.

[DonPeffers]

Brexit is an artificial construct and there is (as the ballot paper showed) Remain  or  Leave.

[DonPeffers]

Currently 13 declared runners and 5 more possibles as shown in BBC article.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48395611

 

A few more and it'll be like the Grand National!

[jeff oakley]

This is more that they are jockeying for prime rolls in the future rather than having any real chance of success. Liz Truss has back Boris and she is a treasury minister, maybe looking to be the first female chancellor.

The betting is the two to face off will be Boris and Grove.

[Alan France]

I didn’t cut up my membership card despite that crazy woman so at least I get a vote when it gets down to the last two.

 

You can trust me to get it right!

[Lyonspride]

Boris has a VERY good chance, which is why the media has been bringing up that court case by that alleged scammer/conman Marcus J Ball (according to internet sources), where the guy has scammed remainers out of a very large sum of money for a supposed prosecution of Boris Johnson, the media has propped him up as an upstanding citizen for the purpose of shaming the possible next UK prime minister.

I mean this Ball character was allegedly thrown out of Canterbury Uni for running a scam on fellow students, and has a string of dubious failed ventures all based around crazy schemes, it just shows how desperately the media wants to stop BoJo.

[DonPeffers]

Leading contender Boris Johnson    https://www.cityam.com/boris-johnson-39bn-brexit-divorce-bill-withhold-leadership/

 

Five Boris Johnson pledges

 

– Withhold Britain’s £39bn divorce payment to the EU to force better terms
– Scrap the Northern Irish backstop, instead settling the Irish border dispute when Brussels is ready to agree to a future relationship
– Recognise the rights of the 3.2m EU citizens living in Britain
– Accelerate the Civil Service’s preparations for a no-deal Brexit
– Leave the EU by 31 October, deal or no deal.

 

I wonder what would happen if Poland (possibly angry with EU over legal action and potential forthcoming financial penalties against it over its refusal to accept migrants/ asylum seekers) activated article 50 in early 2021 (just after a new 7 year budget period had been agreed). The withdrawal date would be say Feb 2023 which leaves almost 5 years to the end of the budget period.

 

The UK has been TOLD the budget stands and we (as a contributor nation) MUST pay £39 Bn exit bill.

 

This brings up the question would Poland, as a recipient nation (currently €8 BN every year) leave the EU in 2023 with a 'Good Luck for the future' card and a leaving collection of 5 years contributions; about €40 Bn?

[DamperMan]

 

29 minutes ago, DonPeffers said:

it bill.

 

This brings up the question would Poland, as a recipient nation (currently €8 BN every year) leave the EU in 2023 with a 'Good Luck for the future' card and a leaving collection of 5 years contributions; about €40 Bn?

 

I think We know the answer to that.......    

[Alan France]

As I get to vote I am quietly waiting for the “offers” from the various candidates for my support.

 

I would be ok with a peerage but would prefer Foreign Secretary as I like to travel.

[Exitus]

The problem is that the bill isn't in any way large enough to allow us to use it as a stick to beat the EU with. The £39 billion mostly isn't for the general EU budget - it's for various projects already agreed, and those agreements include payment dates.

 

So we would have to pay the EU that £39 billion on the timescale previously agreed - which is at various intervals over the next 20 years. EU budget in that time is close to £3000 billion. The payment is barely 1.3% of the overall budget. They would be able to cope with that, I think. 

 

We would literally only be paying it as a goodwill gesture because we had previously agreed to - not because they are desperate for it. Not paying it would just mean that we're even less likely to be able to negotiate any sort of beneficial future relationship with the EU. It would be shooting ourselves in the foot.

[Alan France]

Of the £39bn, about £9bn is for pensions and other commitments. Some of the rest is 2014-2020 budgets, but we’ve probably already paid about £10bn of those. More are payments to the EIB. It could be argued that as they are virtually bank deposits they should actually give us those and more back.

 

£39bn is important to them and TM was crazy to agree to the figure.

 

Also don’t forget when I bought spares for my Corvette 80% of the duty went straight to the EU. That’s another £2bn + per year.

 

 

[Exitus]

It's certainly important to them - they absolutely want the money. My point though is that they don't need it enough to have to give significant ground in the negotiations. If they don't get it they'll just adapt. Even with the loss of duties etc. They'll have other sources of income too - in a no deal situation they'll have to charge tariffs on imports from the UK. That'll help to fill the gap.

 

You're probably right that TM was crazy to agree. She did though - and going back on that agreement will just be seen as proof of unreliability. Which will make it harder to come up with a sensible arrangement in future.