Yesterday’s daily Covid hospital admissions translate into 40,000 a month, into an NHS that has 120,000 overnight beds, but more pointedly, was designed and staffed for only 4000 critical care beds. We built that capacity because people get sick, so 3,000 critical care beds might be occupied by ‘non Covid’ sick people, nothing else got magically cured when Covid came along, and we can’t send them home.
“Excess deaths is the key metric” we have seen repeatedly, and people want to measure against that AND a diametrically opposed metric, the economy. I say, actually neither will be the key metric this winter.
The key metrics this winter are:
Can we provide NHS facilities and staff so that Covid patients that could be saved are given that chance?
Can we provide NHS facilities and staff so that Covid patients that cannot be saved are cared for in their final days?
Can we do that and carry on non-Covid activities like emergency bypasses, cancer surgeries, and all of the others.
Not to put too fine a point on it, if we don’t stop the spread, people will die at home in their beds, in hospital car parks or corridors, effectively slowly drowning.
It is about getting through this winter with some shred of our humanity left.