Ukraine

[jeff oakley]

I fear this is now getting worse. Not only Putin but now another madman who is hated by his people and currently is having a sham referendum to give him even more power.

 

Putin is seeing the sanctions are going to cripple Russia and quickly now everyone is doing it, hence his threat of Nuclear war. This is where proper negotiated solutions are needed that will leave him with some sort of win without Ukraine falling.

 

Had Ukraine had more arms of the right sort they would have done more damage but with what they had the results have been a shock to Putin. This is why he is getting help from Belarus.

 

Putin wants the resource of the Ukraine it is as simple as that 

[Blatman]

11 hours ago, IainCameron said:

If you consider the trouble that USA had in Afghanistan and Iraq, with billions of dollars and dozens of partners, which led to ultimate failure, there is no way that a cash-strapped Putin is going to win (long-term) in Ukraine, with virtually zero global support

 

The bit missing there is that Russia (well, the Soviet Union to be precise) had a 10 year stint in Afghanistan prior to the recent unpleasentness. Back in the 80's "the west" fully backed the Mujahideen rebels against the Soviets who were propping up the Afghan government, in effect making Afghanistan a pseudo Soviet state. Russia probably learnt it's own lessons about invasion of a neighbour. Our lesson was that allies soon turn to enemies when the shared goal is attained. Russia were forced to retreat early in 1989 and the Berlin Wall fell in November that year effectively ending the Cold War. That said, Gorbachov came to power in 1987 and was instrumental in removing Soviet forces from the conflict and of course ending the cold war with his reforms.

This time, Russia has invaded a much more democratic neighbour with a largely pro-european stance, so it'll be different, but may not be any quicker to resolve. My hope is the sanctions bite hard and bite fast to give the Ukranians and their friends in the west some leverage. That said, Putin is far from cash strapped right now. He's had plenty of time to pug away funds as he planned his invasion. And then there is the meeting between Putin and Russias richest oligarchs a day or so before the invasion. The 37 (I think) oilgarchs got their money becasue they paid Putin to look the other way. If they want to hang on to their billions they may well have to start repaying the favour, hence why the decision to remove Russia from SWIFT might well pay dividends in relatively short order. If Putin was using them to hide money "off-shore" then I hope this money is now out of reach. 

[SootySport]

I've been watching Russia Today channel, hasn't been banned yet in UK.  They are of course pro Russian trying to validate the invasion as support for the Dombas region, which of course is Russian territory according to Putin.

[corsechris]

Anyone can play that game, go back to 1132 and look at the extent of the Kieven Rus (the roots of Russia) and I’d say Ukraine have a decent claim on Moscow….

 

 

[Blatman]

5 hours ago, corsechris said:

Anyone can play that game, go back to 1132 and look at the extent of the Kieven Rus (the roots of Russia) and I’d say Ukraine have a decent claim on Moscow….

 

 

 

This is precisely why the middle east has been unstable for several millennia...

[corsechris]

Lots of interesting flights on FR24 at the moment. Small ‘business’ jets, no callsigns, no registration, no flight info, just the most basic flight data….Moscow to Istanbul, Moscow to Nice, Nice to Istanbul.
 

Been seeing an awful lot of Air Pink flights to and from Moscow too. If only I was rich enough to boycott them

 

Also spotted an RAF Typhoon GR4 circuiting around the border of Ukraine and Romania along with a KC2 tanker keeping it topped off. Probably more than one Typhoon there at a guess.

 

Not seeing the Global Hawks any more. No doubt they are still there, just not showing up any more.

 

As always, what I find interesting is why ‘they’ choose to show us what they do from time to time.

[Blatman]

3 hours ago, corsechris said:

Lots of interesting flights on FR24 at the moment. Small ‘business’ jets, no callsigns, no registration, no flight info, just the most basic flight data….Moscow to Istanbul, Moscow to Nice, Nice to Istanbul.

 

I'm betting one could tie that data together with https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-12.0/centery:25.0/zoom:4

filter for "Pleasure Craft" and see which boats move a few hours after wheels down...

[Lyonspride]

The west started this, but only Ukraine can finish it. If Nato gets troops on the ground it WILL start WW3 and Russia will not hesitate to use nuclear force.
If Ukraine still had nukes (the west made them get rid of them) Russia wouldn't be invading right now.

If Russia got into bed with Canada, or Mexico, or I don't know maybe Cuba? Does anyone think the US would not react in the same way Russia have?

Our leaders have not learned from history and they have failed to understand that you don't go around poking communist countries with a great big stick, not everyone puts the same value on human life in the way the west does......

And Russians? most are mental, absolutely mental, win at all costs, even if you die in the process. Think Taliban with weapons advanced enough to not need suicide bombers.
How does a western civilised nation even begin to comprehend this?

Ukraines only hope is to put up enough of a fight to get Russia to the negotiating table.

[Steve (sdh2903)]

48 minutes ago, Lyonspride said:

The west started this,

 

48 minutes ago, Lyonspride said:

you don't go around poking communist countries with a great big stick

 

Interesting (if not a bit mental) viewpoint. 

 

I was under the impression a crazy deluded dictator who wants to leave his name in history started this?

 

48 minutes ago, Lyonspride said:

If Russia got into bed with Canada, or Mexico, or I don't know maybe Cuba? Does anyone think the US would not react in the same way Russia have?

 

Difference is Ukraine haven't got into bed with anyone (yet). They aren't in the EU. They aren't in nato. Is it not an independant country's right to decide who their allies are? Or should everyone lay down now and just let putin have the whole continent to himself?

[Lyonspride]

6 minutes ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

Difference is Ukraine haven't got into bed with anyone. They aren't in the EU. They aren't in nato. Is it not an independant country's right to decide who their allies are? Or should everyone lay down now and just let putin have the whole continent to himself?

It was on the cards for them to join EU and NATO, that's why Putin kicked off, just as the US kicked off when Russia was trying to build military installations in Cuba, it's been brewing up in Ukraine since 2014. Crimea is the real issue though, it is of huge strategic importance to Russia, for Nato to control Crimea would be very very bad for Russia.

The media is of course putting their own spin on all this, as they always do, the propaganda machine is full swing both in the west and in Russia, including video game footage being used to show Russian invasions, but writing off Putin as a crazy dictator is very dangerous indeed.
Putin is extremely intelligent and extremely well connected, he's is former KGB for christ sake, sure he's power hungry and sure he doesn't care much for human life, BUT he's no dunce, and he actually runs a really tight ship too, his govt controls everything in Russia, armed forces, all manufacturing, all business, everything.
There are videos out there showing him at business meetings and he doesn't miss a single thing, he's ruthless and extremely quick minded, I would imagine that plenty of rich and corrupt individuals have ended up in prison as direct result of interactions with Putin in such circumstances.

There will be HUGE loss of life if we don't stop the name calling and try instead to get a grip on the real problems. We went into Afghanistan thinking "oh they're just stupid sand people" and look what happened.

 

[Steve (sdh2903)]

20 minutes ago, Lyonspride said:

It was on the cards for them to join EU and NATO, that's why Putin kicked off, just as the US kicked off when Russia was trying to build military installations in cuba

 

Your comparing apples with bananas.

 

There's only 1 reason that Russia would want a military presence in Cuba. Ukraine wanting to protect or better itself by joining the EU or Nato does not signal that they were doing so to attack Russia.

 

20 minutes ago, Lyonspride said:

Putin is extremely intelligent and extremely well connected

 

No one is doubting his intelligence. But the fact remains he's either lost the plot or he's been putting on a facade for decades and he's now been unable to hide it any longer.

 

But are you seriously denying he doesn't have a screw loose? Have you seen his recent addresses? Seen how he talks to his advisors? The fact he's now pushed through a law banning anyone reporting facts other than the government approved 'news' and threatening 15 years in prison for doing so shows just how desperate he is to stop the normal Russian people from actually finding the truth. 

 

The simple fact is he did a trial run  of this taking crimea and no-one did anything. They shot down a civilian airliner full of innocent people and no-one did anything. If he's allowed to continue his plan without anyone doing anything then this won't stop until he's taken back the whole soviet union. 

[Glen_I]

19 minutes ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

The simple fact is he did a trial run  of this taking crimea and no-one did anything. They shot down a civilian airliner full of innocent people and no-one did anything

Also not forgetting the Salisbury poisonings and the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko.

[Steve (sdh2903)]

5 minutes ago, Lyonspride said:

He's Russian, he's just behaving how Russians behave

 

Sorry but that's a disgraceful thing to say. 

[Lyonspride]

12 minutes ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

 

Sorry but that's a disgraceful thing to say. 

I don't think it's disgraceful to accept and acknowledge cultural differences. I think that's part of the problem, western arrogance, particularly the US and UK, to judge (and to our peril, trust) people by our own standards and not by their own.
Whether it's as simple as understanding that in some countries people smile for different reasons to westerners, or that in communist countries human life has no value, we can't just wade into international affairs expecting everyone to be the same as us, in the same way we arrogantly travel different countries expecting everyone to speak English.

We see certain animals as pets, some see them as vermin, others as food. We are not the entire world, western values are in fact held by a relative minority.
 

[Steve (sdh2903)]

It is disgraceful, bigoted and borderline racist.

 

So by your logic if all Russian people had access to the actual truth, not putin's truth they would all be 100% supportive of the 'special operation'?

 

Complete nonsense. Nothing to do with differing cultures. Its right and wrong. Universal the world over.

 

This is Putin's war not the Russian people's. But it will be those that suffer. Not as much as Ukraines people mind you.