Will cure be worse than disease?

[DonPeffers]

02 may 2020  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8281063/PETER-HITCHENS-destroying-nations-wealth-health-millions.html

 

"PETER HITCHENS: We’re destroying the nation’s wealth – and the health of millions"

 

From a  lengthy article ..."Well, this is where it really starts to matter. We are about a fortnight from the moment when huge numbers of jobs will be in danger of permanent extinction."

 

Brings me back to the question in the post title........will cure be worse than the disease of covid?

 

Medical procedures (non covid) delayed with health detriments, mental health adversely affected by lockdown, millions of jobs at risk resulting in a smaller economy, lesser tax take and public services suffering as a result and can we manage with half an economy (socially distanced etc) until a possible Christmas-ish vaccine?

 

If predictions of half the World's jobs disappearing come to pass there will be mass migration the likes of which we cannot imagine.

 

Some politicians are calling this a war on covid, yet in a war the young, healthy and fit fight the war while the frail and elderly don't face the front line. 

 

Compare cases and death rates of UK (pop 67Mn---coming up to 6 weeks lockdown) and Sweden (pop. 10Mn and no official lockdown).  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

I look forward to Government plans to get UK back to work and note the easing of lockdown expected to be announced Thurs 07 may has been put back to Sun 10 may to give Ministers more time to examine data.

[Nick Algar - Competition Secretary]

Yep, I have got this from the very beginning, it was what really worried me about what was going on. However, I'm really pleased I'm not the one making the decisions because it strikes me that whilst there seems to be quite a lot of "data" it's not enough or helpful enough to really give anyone a clear cut decision. They are going to be dammed if they do and dammed if they don;t going by the current Media. So good luck to them, let's hope for our sakes they get it right for the long term benefit of everyone, although that may mean some short term pain.

[Steve (sdh2903)]

Indeed not a decision I'd like to be making. Its a no win situation.

 

My personal opinion is its time to start getting back to a (new) normal. Shield the most vulnerable and continue distancing as best as possible. We need to do this before there is nothing to return to.

 

The biggest hurdle is though the schools reopening. Lots of people will be unable to return to work without the schools opening. Up here we only have 7 or 8 weeks before the summer holidays start and then another 6 weeks of school holidays. The local government are making insinuations that there won't be a reopening before the holidays and there won't be any flexibility on the summer holiday period. Which I find amazing. The kids will have been out of school for over 20 weeks by the time they go back. The online schooling we're getting is minimal and even this week they are adding 2 in service days to the bank holiday!! In service days, really?

[Andy Malone - Editor]

We'll have to wait and see how it all pans out, however I received an email from my son's nursery on Friday saying that they are currently preparing for a June 1st restart of services (and wanted to ask parents some questions to address concerns, possible new steps, etc...), and the school he is due to start going to in September has sent us a series of intake dates for him to go to in June/July so my assumption is the education system is gearing up already. 

 

To be honest I can't see a way they won't be able to get schools rolling fairly soon as it's a big factor in getting people back into work, and the science suggests child transmission is relatively low (in fact Switzerland have gone as far as removing grandchild/grandparent distancing saying young children in particular "don't have the receptors" required to spread the disease - https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-swiss-children-under-10-allowed-to-hug-grandparents-as-they-do-not-transmit-covid-19-11980568). 

 

It's all big big decisions though and the ministers/advisers working on it really are between a rock and a hard place on lots of fronts. Regardless of any political persuasion I do feel for them, it's high stakes stuff.  

 

I just hope we can get things moving in a orderly way soon but still avoid a second peak, as some of the financial analysis I've read suggests that if the majority of economies begin growing again around the same time they will all pull each other up relatively fast (not like the long-term dip of 2008), however if one or two countries go back into lock down then their economy could drop into a true recession out of sync with the rest of the western economies and that would be a nightmare.

[Rob Hunter - Club Secretary]

Comparing Sweden with the UK is a difficult thing.... Sweden is twice the size of the UK with just 15% of the population, they are naturally more "socially distanced" than we are

[Ian Podmore]

That is an interesting point, demonstrated in the data now available of the UK's deaths per 100,000 split into geographic areas.  It shows much lower numbers of deaths in areas with sparse populations in the UK, and significantly higher where the large cities are, or commuters to those cities.  Hence an explanation of Sweden's situation, and other countries.

 

Couple of links to maps which may be of interest.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc811/multimap/index.html

 

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/map-shows-number-coronavirus-deaths-4100972?fbclid=IwAR3pgVdmYTnQreG6tXcp1jVYKKsjI3EvI5uwRUXUuEGl6dU-DylE12TCI48

 

 

 

 

[corsechris]

It’s a fairly simple trade-off really. There's enough data now to say with reasonable accuracy how it affects certain demographics. So, you trade long term damage to the economy and the health of an indeterminate number of folk of all ages against short term carnage of principally older and the more unhealthy among us. Not forgetting of course that if allowed to run rampant, the NHS and many other systems would cease to function for an indeterminate time, further aggravating the situation.

 

Anyone care to make that call?

 

 

[DonPeffers]

From data I've seen the covid mortality stats. rise sharply after age 44 and especially steeply after age 65 , 75 and 85, although in the older age groups other ailments could be a factor as well. Elderly, especially with health problems, might need to continue with shielding. Major risk factors seem to be based on obesity, ethnicity, age and underlying health conditions.

 

The judgement the politicians will be making is do we protect the NHS by more lockdown but less national income  or  risk a phased return to work with protective measures, because if national income falls too far will there be funding for an NHS in the future?

[DonPeffers]

Post-lockdown return to work travel cartoon from Matt in The Telegraph.

 

[Lyonspride]

On 04/05/2020 at 16:08, RobH72 said:

Comparing Sweden with the UK is a difficult thing.... Sweden is twice the size of the UK with just 15% of the population, they are naturally more "socially distanced" than we are

I glad i'm not the only one, people keep spewing out this media derived nonsense about Swedens approach being better, etc, etc, blah, blah, but never actually presenting the very obvious reasons why. It's not helping the situation and it's causing people to think it's ok to act in defiance of the lockdown, which in turn just drags the whole thing out for longer than needed.....

[Nick Algar - Competition Secretary]

There are a couple of things that have come to light very recently which really make you wonder.

 

1) In the UK if a deceased person has signs of Covid 19, then they are included in the COVID 19 death figures, even though they may have actually died of something else, ie heart attack. I actually find this amazing as it feels like the figures are being very much pushed upwards as a result. 

2) According to Press reports ( No i've not checked) only 332 under 45's have died of it, and given what is said above, makes you wonder even more. 

 

Given the damage that is being done to the economy currently, you have to think what the right thing is to do. ??

[DonPeffers]

Clearly population density is a very big factor in viral transmission and it was obvious there would be a huge problem in Manhattan when covid arrived.

 

I wouldn't say the Swedish approach is better (relying on social distancing and personal responsibility), and they do have a lot of care home deaths, but with few in public wearing masks and an expected R factor of 3 when unprotected (ie. 1 person infects 3 others) I don't see the exponential growth in cases although neither Sweden nor anyone else is out of the woods yet.

[DonPeffers]

2 hours ago, Nick - Joint North East AO said:

 

 

 

2) According to Press reports ( No i've not checked) only 332 under 45's have died of it,

 

Given the damage that is being done to the economy currently, you have to think what the right thing is to do. ??

here's a partial answer Nick with Scotland's age of covid deaths chart. 

 

06 may 2020      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177   Coronavirus in Scotland.

 

[corsechris]

That graph is what I was alluding to in my post. Simple choice, let the old & sick die and carry on, business as usual, or try to minimise deaths while trying to minimise economic and collateral damage. All the facts & figures in the world won't really help to inform that decision.

 

 

 

(Full disclosure, I'm 60 but to the best of my knowledge, in reasonable health so don't think I am particularly at risk)

[Blatman]

2 hours ago, Nick - Joint North East AO said:

1) In the UK if a deceased person has signs of Covid 19, then they are included in the COVID 19 death figures, even though they may have actually died of something else, ie heart attack.

 

That's because the government changed the rules on what constitutes a reportable disease and added Covid 19 to the list. I think the idea was that it would provide for better numbers of infections. The unintended consequence is that people dying of others things are reported as Covid 19 deaths. I am hoping the statistics are further refined when time allows.