What hope for Brexit negotiations?

[Steve (sdh2903)]

I admire your optimism I really do. I Think some is pretty misguided though. You really think we'll just get to keep the 39billion and not pay. Really? The rest of Europe would screw us royally if we didn't pay our bar tab. And that really would be another nail in the coffin.

And 'IF' or 'MAYBE' is what this whole referendum is based on. There are no facts until a deal is agreed or we leave with no deal on the 29th March. People weren't voting 2 years ago with any real knowledge of the facts and to be completely fair aren't doing so now either.

It's either the glory hunting brexiteers on one side or the doom and gloom remainers on the other. Which just leaves the UK public trying to earn a living stuck in the middle.

Anyways I'm leaving it there. This issue is divisive enough. Let's not let it divide a top club/forum aswell 

[Blatman]

35 minutes ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

You really think we'll just get to keep the 39billion and not pay.

I said "I hope we keep..." which seems to have been re-interpreted into asking if that is what I really think. Do I really think we will keep it? That's not what I said. Do I HOPE we can keep it? Of course I do. Who wouldn't? What is wrong with that?

ALL the rhetoric on both sides is nuanced and we need to make sure that what we read is what we understand. Taking what is stated and turning it into something that fits our personal point of view will be our undoing as far as understanding what we are being told. There is a Bertarnd Russell quote that comes to mind. This is NOT aimed at anybody, it is a quote that I think fits with the reporting of Brexit in the press and my previous post:

"An ignorant mans report of what an intelligent man says can never be accurate as he takes what he hears and turns it in to what he can understand"

Brexit Project Fear reporting in a nutshell. The press know this is what happens so they report "MAY cost jobs/houses/money/NHS/benefits etc etc. It seems to me the majority of the public see "MAY cost..." and turn it into "WILL cost..." and start stocking up on canned goods.

Am I misguided? There's every chance but having made a choice I'm going to own it. I agree that most of this is being made up as we go along but that's the only way. Unprecedented means not having any experience so we make it up as we go. It's not necessarily a bad thing. But those with a glass half empty view will say it's not a good thing. It's an un-winnable point. I choose to be optimistic because the alternative can end up being a self fulfilling (and worse, un-fulfilling) prophecy which will do no-one any good.

Was my vote to leave misguided? There's two answers to that depending on what side of the fence the viewers are on. Was it an uninformed decision? No. I was lucky enough to be able to speak to several knowledgeable people about the subject and I am happy that I made an informed choice.

Final thought for the moment is this, and it's about having a second referendum. What if we have a second referendum based on 52 - 48 not being a large enough majority for a mandate. What if the next vote goes 52 - 48 remain? Surely that will be just as "invalid" as 52 - 48 leave. Where does that leave us? Do we then go for two out of three?

At my last check-up my GP said I was borderline high blood pressure. But that means I'm actually OK. In the sprinting world I've been at scrutineering where I am told I am just above the legal ride height. Good, that means we can both use a ruler and my settings are right rather than the impression of the scrutineer which is that my settings are nearly wrong. It's just daft. How many people here have been told by a copper that "this tyre is nearly illegal". So what? Nearly illegal = legal. It's a binary question. Come on people, think about what is being said and how it is being interpreted.

We had a vote. Leave won. It's time to own it. Sadly, and as mentioned, I think there is a lack of spine in the upper echelons.

Steve, I hope you'll stay in the discussion. No-one here is going to fall out over a decent, substantive and well reasoned debate  

[Man On The Clapham Omnibus]

*What I find irritating about the BBC reporting is not only the constant references to 'crashing out' and 'cliff edge', but the statements that are allowed to pass unchallenged along the lines of "...we must have another referendum (sorry, people's vote - more friendly) because now the voters who opted for leave can see what Brexit means". Rowlocks they can! It hasn't happened any more than the second coming has so any effects thus far cannot ipso facto be caused by any form of departure whether with or without 'a deal'. 

A commentator when discussing the assertion that the EU will not do anything to harm the German car industry as based of false logic. He reminded us of the tale of the frog and the scorpion in which a scorpion wanted to cross a river and he asked a frog, who was also about to cross, for a lift on his back as he swam across. The frog asked the scorpion why he should because the scorpion might sting the frog and kill it. The scorpion's argument was that he was hardly likely to do that because the frog would sink and both would die. So they set off and halfway across the scorpion stung the frog and the frog asked with its dying breath why the scorpion would do that in the certain knowledge that they would both die. The scorpion replied "because It's in my nature!" Thus it is with the dogma driven EU. To Hell with common sense and concern for business, Ever Closer Union! We're better out IMHO.

[Steve (sdh2903)]

27 minutes ago, Blatman said:

We had a vote. Leave won. It's time to own it.

I accept that. Not agree but accept. Another referendum would be an expensive mess I agree.

The biggest issue here is we're doing a complete and utter ****e disorganised job of leaving. 

[Nick Algar - Competition Secretary]

1 hour ago, Man On The Clapham Omnibus said:

*What I find irritating about the BBC reporting is not only the constant references to 'crashing out' and 'cliff edge', but the statements that are allowed to pass unchallenged along the lines of "...we must have another referendum (sorry, people's vote - more friendly) because now the voters who opted for leave can see what Brexit means". Rowlocks they can! It hasn't happened any more than the second coming has so any effects thus far cannot ipso facto be caused by any form of departure whether with or without 'a deal'. 

A commentator when discussing the assertion that the EU will not do anything to harm the German car industry as based of false logic. He reminded us of the tale of the frog and the scorpion in which a scorpion wanted to cross a river and he asked a frog, who was also about to cross, for a lift on his back as he swam across. The frog asked the scorpion why he should because the scorpion might sting the frog and kill it. The scorpion's argument was that he was hardly likely to do that because the frog would sink and both would die. So they set off and halfway across the scorpion stung the frog and the frog asked with its dying breath why the scorpion would do that in the certain knowledge that they would both die. The scorpion replied "because It's in my nature!" Thus it is with the dogma driven EU. To Hell with common sense and concern for business, Ever Closer Union! We're better out IMHO.

Ah, you mean the Biased Broadcasting Corporation who unfortunately do not in the main deserve the Licence Fee the collect by Law. I still remember the days when they did give a good unbiased view, but they are unfortunately long gone. Whilst they do have a lot of good programs, I do hope this fiasco means their monopoly is ended and the Licence Fee is fundemenatally changed, it should only go to an Unbiased organisation.

[Blatman]

2 hours ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

I accept that. Not agree but accept. Another referendum would be an expensive mess I agree.

The biggest issue here is we're doing a complete and utter ****e disorganised job of leaving. 

Wasn't suggesting that you didn't accept. I agree 100% that there is too much politics going on.

The other thing that springs to mind is this; we voted 52 - 48 to leave. In my simplistic mind there should be an automatic 52 - 48 majority in parliament. Or are there constituencies out there who voted leave yet their MP is not backing that decision. How do we find that out?  

[DonPeffers]

4 hours ago, Blatman said:

 Do I HOPE we can keep it? Of course I do. Who wouldn't? What is wrong with that?

 

 

1 hour ago, Blatman said:

The other thing that springs to mind is this; we voted 52 - 48 to leave. In my simplistic mind there should be an automatic 52 - 48 majority in parliament. Or are there constituencies out there who voted leave yet their MP is not backing that decision. How do we find that out?  

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/04/uk-could-quit-eu-without-paying-a-penny-say-lords  

"Brexit: UK could quit EU without paying a penny, say Lords".

A large proportion of the 39 Bn euros is the UK's contribution until the end of the 7 year accounting period, 31 Dec 2020, and leaving without a deal on 29 Mar 2019 means those contributions are for a period when we would no longer be a member.

Imagine after 31 Dec 2020,  when a new 7 year accounting period and contributions have been agreed, that a new Government is elected in Italy on a leave EU platform and activates article 50 in June 2021. The exit date is 30 Jun 2023, so just 30 months into the 7 year accounts. Would Italy pay contributions for the remaining 4 and a half years after it had left the block??

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"Every Leave constituency where the MP voted Remain."    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/every-leave-constituency-with-a-remain-mp/    

Labour's Wes Streeting (Ilford North 53.3% leave) has been extremely vocal demanding a 2nd referendum.

On the eve of the EU Referendum Cameron said in the event of a leave majority vote he would activate article 50 within hours. If only he had, the exit date would have been reached on 24 Jun 2018.

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29 NOVEMBER 2018   https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/11/mps-who-back-new-eu-referendum  "The MPs who back a new EU referendum".

[DonPeffers]

"Because Brexit means Brexit, and we're going to make a success of it".  https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/theresa-may-tory-leadership-campaign-8396030

Above said by Mrs May on 11 July 2016 shortly before being declared Cameron's successor as PM.

32 days to go to 29 March 2019 and talk today of a lengthy extension to the withdrawal. 

24 Feb 2019  https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal   "Brexit could be delayed until 2021 under plans being explored by the EU’s most senior officials, at a time of growing exasperation over Theresa May’s handling of the talks, the Guardian can reveal." 

"Replacing the 21-month transition period with extra time as a member state would allow the UK and the EU to develop their plans for the future relationship with the aim of making the contentious Irish backstop redundant."

"“People are talking about the extension of article 50 as if it solves the issue when of course it won’t. It defers the point of decision. There comes a point when we must make that decision.”

Brexhaustion definitely setting in here. Will it ever end?

 

[Blatman]

4 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

"Brexit could be delayed until 2021 under plans being explored by the EU’s most senior officials, at a time of growing exasperation over Theresa May’s handling of the talks, the Guardian can reveal." 

Again, this is a "which side of the fence" thing. The EU, previously REFUSING to negotiate and confident that May would buckle under pressure are now thinking "oh feck, we've mis-calculated" and are scrambling to get what THEY want because right now, we ain't givin' in...

Or???

Now, that's not to say that I don't think a lot of this hasn't been bungled becasue it's a bit of a mess. But what if it turns out May is the Queen of political brinksmanship. Maybe we all mis-judged her  She's either going to come out of this as the best leader since Churchill or the worst since Brown... er... well, OK, Heath... 

[DonPeffers]

BBC 18Mar2019  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47610439    "Brexit: EU wary of divisions over UK delay."

"The EU has almost given up understanding what's going on in UK politics.

This weekend, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte compared UK Prime Minister Theresa May to the Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel, but insists to his opponent that the fight was a draw.

Elsewhere in the EU, there is less attempted humour about the situation, especially with the prospect of a lengthy delay to Brexit on the cards."

A fair attempt at humour but not sure who's laughing.

So either no delay/no deal,  OR possible 3 month delay,  OR  possible 9 to 21 month delay meaning taking part in EU MEP elections. I do wonder what the percentage turnout will be if these go ahead.

[Blatman]

Do we understand Dutch (French/German/Italian/Spanish) politics? I suspect not. So Dutch PM is issuing a sound-bite masquerading as actual criticism but with no helpful content. Its a big "so what" to me.

So, May refuses to give in. Now the EU are talking about an extension which was absolutely off the table just a few weeks ago. They fear a No Deal because they will lose more than we will. I wonder if they are going to agree to a lengthy extension just so we are forced to participate in European elections which will cost us millions and then continue to have the tail wag to dog. 

Lets leave next week with no deal. I've got a leaving do planned 4 forks ache...