Lockdown continues in Scotland until 28 may 2020.

[DonPeffers]

Yesterday FM Nicola Sturgeon announced the lockdown would continue as R number (virus reproduction) was too high.  Seems mostly in care homes now.

 

I begin to wonder if by the end of lockdown the Government will have Nationalised many large viable businesses (on the cheap) and many will have disappeared for good.

 

I start by confirming I am not an epidemiologist.

 

I want to look at Scotland (entering 7th week of lockdown) and Sweden (no lockdown).

 

Scotland population 5 Mn, total covid cases 12924, total covid deaths 2986, largest city Glasgow pop. 600k.(data 07may2020).

Sweden population 10.7Mn, total covid cases 24623, total covid deaths 3040, largest city Stockholm pop. 1Mn.(data 07 may 2020).

 

In both countries most deaths are of the elderly and especially in care homes.

 

Is a continued lockdown necessary?

 

I confirm a vested interest as now desperate to get the damn westie out as 2 days of Scottish Summer have now arrived!

[Steve (sdh2903)]

I suspect that if boris had kept lockdown, nicola would have done the opposite. 

 

In her briefings she is using the words 'this is not a political decision' and 'we'd prefer to act together' just a little too much now. 

[DonPeffers]

2 minutes ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

I suspect that if boris had kept lockdown, nicola would have done the opposite. 

 

 

I thought the same Steve.

[Stuart]

Sweden has one of the lowest population densities in Europe but has had more than 3 times the number of deaths than Norway, Finland and Denmark added together.

[corsechris]

You don't seem to get the significance of the data you've posted Don. The lockdown has kept the death toll down. Twice the population, higher density by a massive margin if you factor in land area (Sweden 450k km2, Scotland 80k km2).

 

Without the lockdown, those numbers for deaths in Scotland would look rather different.

[Steve (sdh2903)]

The long and short of it is we cant successfully compare with any other country. There hasn't been any worldwide cohesive actions taken. Every country has done things slightly differently. Each has varying health care systems.

 

The UK has tried to be clever and its cost us. We were far too slow into lockdown. Our lockdown has been far too soft. We've allowed all in our borders without a sniff of checks or quarantine. Even now the governments are making a complete balls of the restriction easing. No clear guidelines. No clear unified message amongst the 4 nation leaders.

[DonPeffers]

58 minutes ago, Stuart said:

Sweden has one of the lowest population densities in Europe but has had more than 3 times the number of deaths than Norway, Finland and Denmark added together.

 

58 minutes ago, corsechris said:

You don't seem to get the significance of the data you've posted Don. The lockdown has kept the death toll down. Twice the population, higher density by a massive margin if you factor in land area (Sweden 450k km2, Scotland 80k km2).

 

Without the lockdown, those numbers for deaths in Scotland would look rather different.

I was looking at Scotland and Sweden, not the other Nordic nations, and Sweden has a far greater number of care homes than the others and that is where a large proportion of deaths occur.

 

Sweden has a larger land mass (lower population density) but large unpopulated areas won't contribute to stats. 

 

The Biggest Cities In Sweden  1Stockholm 1,515,017,   2Gothenburg 572,799  3Malmö 301,706, 4Uppsala 149,245.

The biggest cities in Scotland 1Glasgow 612,040, 2Edinburgh 488,050, 3Aberdeen 200,680 4Dundee 148,280.

 

If we look at Denmark (population 5.8 Mn) the population density is twice that of Scotland (134 per sq km versus 67) yet has 10218 covid cases and  522 covid deaths so the Danish approach, including lockdown, has worked better.

 

UK 1st covid case was 29 jan 2020 and Sweden was 30 jan 2020.

 

The curve of covid deaths is heading down in Sweden.

 

It could well be that without lockdown the covid deaths in Scotland would be a lot higher. UK had 694 deaths by 25 mar 2020 and official lockdown was on 26 mar 2020, whereas Portugal locked down before a single death with a much better result.

 

It may well be that lockdown must continue because we were far too late to enter it.

 

We'll just have to grin and bear it.

[corsechris]

Personally I think the lockdown should have happened sooner and our borders should have been shut tight. Still should be too.

 

But, based on the amount of pressure there is after the current lockdown period, how would you all be feeling if it had started weeks earlier? No way to know how long it would have lasted had it started sooner.

 

Fundamentally, this is all retrospective crystal ball gazing and trying to compare apples with amoeba. It is utterly worthless. We are where we are.

[Steve (sdh2903)]

5 minutes ago, corsechris said:

Fundamentally, this is all retrospective crystal ball gazing and trying to compare apples with amoeba. It is utterly worthless. We are where we are.

 

Very true. 

[Blatman]

1 hour ago, corsechris said:

this is all retrospective crystal ball gazing

 

Er... what? Crystal balls are usually used to predict the future  

[corsechris]

20 minutes ago, Blatman said:

 

Er... what? Crystal balls are usually used to predict the future  

 I was aiming for an absurdity....seems I didn’t miss, for a change

[Blatman]

*Whoosh*...

Well played  

[Blatman]

Back to the numbers...

 

The figures need to include population figures for BAME, obesity rates, cancer rates, heart condition rates... I could go on.

 

What we KNOW is that the change to the notifiable disease regulations means the numbers may be askew and it's going to take a lot of effort to unpick them.

At the moment and on balance I tend to support the rule change to make Covid-19 notifiable as it will give a reading as to the potential infection rates which the statisticians can play with for a while.

At the moment whether Covid-19 was solely responsible or a contributory factor is neither here or there. That will become important later. But the health officials need the numbers and I believe this was the best way to get them at this time given the speed with which it escalated.

[corsechris]

^^^

 

 And there is the key to all this.....details. They really do matter. Odd ‘headline’ parameters cherry-picked to try and support one position or another are far worse than useless, they are dangerous.

[Mighty Mart]

Figures are all skewed regarding deaths and we may never know the true numbers in the uk....

My son is a journalist and has picked up on a localish story regarding an elderly man of 93 who has just unfortunately died in a care home. He was not ill and the care home had assumed he had died of old age. They are furious that his death certificate states coved 19 as the cause of death. When they queried it with the doctor, he had said that he had 'probably' contracted it......

If similar calls are being made all over the country, how on earth are any quality decisions for the best of the country ever going to be made.

This is still being seen by some as an opportunity to point score against the Government in a lot of cases imho..

Mart.