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What A Bright Spark


Captain Colonial

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Amazing speech by Boris despite a complete lack of detail or clarity. We need detail and proper timescales please. Not sure getting people back to work will help stop the virus spreading. No sign of a roadmap or matching Scotland, Wales and Ireland. 

 

 

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That’s it, I’m done, I can’t think of anything to cap it off with. This has really cheered me up.

 

Nem.... 

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1 hour ago, Terry Everall - WSCC Competition Secretary said:

proper timescales please.

 

The one thing he can't give. 

 

This phase is the experiment. He has announced that anyone who wants to open their businesses (except for hospitality) can do so from tomorrow. That the announcement was made on a Sunday night of a Bank Holiday weekend was (in my opinion) an attempt to buy another week before mass commuting re-starts. I'm betting lots of business owners can't mobilise their workforce or make appropriate changes by opening time tomorrow.

Business owners can take the week planning how they will open and assist their staff in abide by social distancing measures to keep staff safe and CONFIDENT in their safety. So expect slight traffic jams on commuter routes starting on the 18th.

By the week ending Friday 29th May the statistics should be able to show if there has been a rise in infections or not and if that rise is manageable or critical. The actions thereafter will be determined by the numbers. If there has been a spike and R is back over 1, we'll all be back indoors for a spell.

 

Asking for proper timescales is like asking for next weeks lottery numbers...

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1 hour ago, Nemesis said:

That’s it, I’m done, I can’t think of anything to cap it off with. This has really cheered me up.

 

Nem.... 

 

Well thanks for distributing the love...

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Explosions in the order of 1-8-4-3-6-5-7-2.... if you're doing it right

 

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If he can't breathe properly through that cap he'll get dizzy....

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2 hours ago, Blatman said:

 

The one thing he can't give. 

 

This phase is the experiment. He has announced that anyone who wants to open their businesses (except for hospitality) can do so from tomorrow. That the announcement was made on a Sunday night of a Bank Holiday weekend was (in my opinion) an attempt to buy another week before mass commuting re-starts. I'm betting lots of business owners can't mobilise their workforce or make appropriate changes by opening time tomorrow.

Business owners can take the week planning how they will open and assist their staff in abide by social distancing measures to keep staff safe and CONFIDENT in their safety. So expect slight traffic jams on commuter routes starting on the 18th.

By the week ending Friday 29th May the statistics should be able to show if there has been a rise in infections or not and if that rise is manageable or critical. The actions thereafter will be determined by the numbers. If there has been a spike and R is back over 1, we'll all be back indoors for a spell.

 

Asking for proper timescales is like asking for next weeks lottery numbers...

 

Talking to myself now but I missed this earlier...

A few days after easing lockdown restrictions in Germany, the R is back above 1 so infections are again on the rise. That didn't take long :( 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52604676?fbclid=IwAR03T0I-LBumH_Gnntx64Nflx-XDOkLKrwkO7Fc1n2vGpC91Wp87bQBX2m4

 

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Virus not fooled by stats.

 

What if a new nasty virus emerges every 5-10 years?  Do we hide away again and again?

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12 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

What if a new nasty virus emerges every 5-10 years?  Do we hide away again and again?

 

One does... well almost... Most are not as easily transmitted or as "well concealed" as this one though.

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11 hours ago, Blatman said:

 

One does... well almost... Most are not as easily transmitted or as "well concealed" as this one though.

Got any statistics on percentage of covid infected who are asymptomatic so I can judge the concealment level?

 

1968 Hong Kong flu killed 30,000 in UK so seems to have been fairly easily transmitted.

 

My question was do we lockdown repeatedly.

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17 minutes ago, DonPeffers said:

Got any statistics on percentage of covid infected who are asymptomatic so I can judge the concealment level?

 

Never gonna have them until everyone has an antibody test and on receipt of a positive test reports that they have never had any symptoms. I'm betting its quite a lot. Plus incubation time before symptoms show BUT whilst being infectious is believed to be between 5 and 14 days from exposure so there is a massive time period in which people are carriers and capable of passing on the infection. This remains the biggest problem after lockdown.

 

20 minutes ago, DonPeffers said:

1968 Hong Kong flu killed 30,000 in UK so seems to have been fairly easily transmitted.

 

R value was close to Covid-19 at 3 although there are estimates that the initial R numbers was 1 to 2

Covid-19 lower value seems to be 3. I don't know what that actually relates to in the real world but on the basic numbers it seems Covid-19 is generally thought to be more infectious. Previous published analysis of the R value for Covid-19 would seem to back that up.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, DonPeffers said:

So do we lockdown repeatedly?

 

Depends on how well we adapt to the new normal. To me Boris was quite clear. If the next phase shows a spike we all head back indoors for a spell. It's on us. Sadly until a treatment or vaccine is found, it always will be.

 

Forgot to add the link I found about the Hong Kong flu'

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2816729/

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19 minutes ago, DonPeffers said:

So do we lockdown repeatedly?

 

If necessary, yes, that was the implication of this weeks news.

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