Important covid question

[stephenh]

Is there any reason why the gowns shouldn't be used 3 times, with a hot wash between each use? If not, then surely given the global nature of the pandemic, and the finite resources for the manufacture of the gowns, won't it be inevitable that the gowns will continue to be washed and reused 3 times?

 

Personally, I don't want to catch the virus if I can possibly avoid it as I'm the wrong side of 70, as is Mrs. H., added to which she isn't in perfect health, but if I've got to catch it then I might as well catch it now as later is my view.

[XTR2Turbo]

Well my assumption is that the current phase is

 

1) buying time to scale up a fairly niche part of the nhs to allow for maximum icu / oxygen support / ventilators via Nightingale’s 

 

2) improve our data precision on infection rates and levels of hospitalisation 

 

3) get the public somewhat scared / accepting of controls and death levels and worried about economic impact 

 

4) find a drug already licenced that might significantly help those worse impacted 

 

before finally letting herd effect take its course 

 

obviously they can’t say this yet because human behaviour quite finally balanced.

 

based on the above I would say get infected now from capacity etc point of view.  

 

I do think economics will soon come to dominate. 
 

it was said somewhere (I haven’t substantiated) that nice value drugs and treatments as acceptable if £50k cost add atleast one year of life 

 

crudely the pandemic is estimated to have cost the country 300 billion

 

base on nice numbers my quick calculation we could economically justify  as normal metric 300k dying with average age of 64 !!

 

[Arm]

7 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

Maybe best not to get infected when PPE supplies running low and some protective garments being used three times was the point I was trying to make.

Merely a medical observation. 

PPE supplies are always going to be low. They are being used at a phenomenal rate. But please I don't really want to swerve this thread that way

[ACW]

Ash,

Interesting thread.

 

Like you I took a maths / Engineer approach to this and discussed the same 'ideal' time to get ill, if the thought is that many of us will need to. Like you many others i discussed this with were horrified with my approach. I send staff to WFH a couple of weeks before most other and any lockdown as a precaution based on risk / benefit. Im also classed as higher risk group.

 

Im convinced that time for innovation, analysis and learning is required, and therefore I intend to wait as long as possible (if indeed I havent already had it with mild symptoms). I believe that in many medical facilities the staff on the ground will be learning whats works and what doesnt work at the front line. Scientists will learn facts about various aspects, possibly existing medicines will be proven effective at relieving symptoms. And of course eventually there may be a vaccine or other proven prophylactic measures. Things are been achieved in new record time frames around the world, but time is required. All engineers know how long things take to work out the issues and revise plans and test.

 

Whilst on the other side of course the economy is been damaged, mental health for many is suffering but hearing the number of heartbreaking situations should be enough to put these things into perspective.

 

Give it time, I think we should wait at least 3 weeks after another country with reliable data reduces lock down to give an indication as to the impact. However since science and maths needs more time to work out the variables that come into play, I would be very wary of making comparisons for the data too strongly.

 

I believe much of the media is out of touch with the mood of much of the country. I dont know how that gets addressed. Placebo effects and morale have real health outcomes so we should stay positive. Im not a fan of suppressing debate, but if the world wide scientific community hasnt found key information that they can agree on in significant numbers, I dont really understand the benefit of "insert Journo here" asking "Insert Politican here" questions that cant be know repeatedly.

 

Stay safe everyone, and stay home.

 

Adrian.

[TAFKARM]

And while you’re at home, order heating oil! It’s so cheap! 

[jeff oakley]

I think so far the right approach has been taken. One can argue that the lockdown could have been a week sooner but I feel what we are seeing the lockdown do economically and socially would be even worse now had an earlier lockdown been taken.

 

What people need to realise is that we cannot stop this simply by staying at home, yes it has helped but it will not stop it so we need to get used to that fact that many more of us will get this and the severity will vary. The lockdown was to allow the NHS to cope with the volume which has been successful.

 

What we have seen against the death toll, many more people are surviving even after getting into hospital ITU departments as treatments are being developed and shared quickly around the world now so that is good news.

 

Many of those who have died had other health issues and it will be some time before the real facts come out but so far we know those who are overweight are at greater risk of not recovering. The less healthy in general are at greater risk and many of those quoted as having no underlying health issue actually did but they were unaware of them before the Covid virus got hold of them. Clearly some will have died with no issues but they will be a minority once all the numbers are crunched.

 

We need to ramp up testing so people can safely get back to work and come up with ways that allow life to function in all areas. Areas that rely on tourists for their economy need a way to be allowed to go back to business. Airlines need to fly as soon as they can so life can return to as near normal as possible minimising the devastation the crash in the economy will cause.

 

It will be a phased return but it feels wrong to say all old people must remain indoors whilst young can live normally but that is a difficult thing to see how we could do that.

 

After this we need to have a real change in the way we look after ourselves, lose weight get as fit as we can take responsibility for what is in our control.

 

We need the security of supplies to be paramount and if that means a few pence on a mask, then so be it to have them made in the UK. This has exposed the Just in Time supply chain as lacking as well as some of those in procurement in the NHS.

 

[stephenh]

Going right back to the original question, I don't have the answer, beyond what we are already doing. As to where we go from here, we do have one advantage in that at least 2 other European countries are 2 or 3 weeks ahead of us in the development of the course of the virus, thinking in particular of Italy and Spain, so we have the opportunity to see what happens when and how they move out of full lockdown, and we can then either follow them or if it is not a good outcome our experts can try and devise alternatives.

[Kingster]

1 hour ago, ACW said:

Give it time, I think we should wait at least 3 weeks after another country with reliable data reduces lock down to give an indication as to the impact.

Germany is coming out slowly now. Small shops are reopening according to my friend who lives in Hannover. So hopefully we can learn from them - and we are supposedly 3 weeks behind Italy, so they maybe another one to look at. 
 

However, Germany went into lockdown sooner than we did (in terms of days after first deaths) and had access to comparatively huge amounts of testing vs us (hence their large number of infections reported vs lower death rate). This meant they got it under control quicker than we have (if we have?). 
 

I think we need at least another two to three weeks as we are now and then maybe, just maybe start to introduce softer measures with much more testing and maintaining the distancing where possible. 

[AdamR]

7 minutes ago, Chris King - Webmaster and Joint North East AO said:

Germany is coming out slowly now.

Like this?

 

[TAFKARM]

2 minutes ago, AdamR said:

Like this?

 

what happens on ring trips stays on ring trips. Although that’s probably a poor choice of phrase 

[Alan France]

2 hours ago, ACW said:

I believe much of the media is out of touch with the mood of much of the country. I dont know how that gets addressed.

Agree, and many have there own agenda.

 

Last Friday BBC Today headline news at 6, 7, 8 and 9am was, NHS trust boss asks to be put in touch with fashion bosses as they are running out of gowns.

 

Story was rubbish and the BBC placed a tiny “correction” hidden in the Business section of their news website several days later.

 

If mainstream media cannot check sources what hope is there.

 

[Kingster]

1 hour ago, AdamR said:

Like this?

 

I dunno, can’t say anything without someone taking it the wrong way - and where did you get that photo of my mate? 😁

[Steve (sdh2903)]

36 minutes ago, Alan France said:

Agree, and many have there own agenda.

 

Last Friday BBC Today headline news at 6, 7, 8 and 9am was, NHS trust boss asks to be put in touch with fashion bosses as they are running out of gowns.

 

Story was rubbish and the BBC placed a tiny “correction” hidden in the Business section of their news website several days later.

 

If mainstream media cannot check sources what hope is there.

 

 

I saw the correction on the headlines page. It was actually the 2nd story from the top as I never venture into the murky business pages. They explained their mistake and apologised.

 

More than can be said for most other media outlets.

[Lyonspride]

2 hours ago, Chris King - Webmaster and Joint North East AO said:

Germany is coming out slowly now. Small shops are reopening according to my friend who lives in Hannover. So hopefully we can learn from them - and we are supposedly 3 weeks behind Italy, so they maybe another one to look at. 
 

However, Germany went into lockdown sooner than we did (in terms of days after first deaths) and had access to comparatively huge amounts of testing vs us (hence their large number of infections reported vs lower death rate). This meant they got it under control quicker than we have (if we have?). 
 

I think we need at least another two to three weeks as we are now and then maybe, just maybe start to introduce softer measures with much more testing and maintaining the distancing where possible. 

I don't see the point in all this testing, you can get tested clear now,  walk 100 yard get infected. It seems utterly pointless in most case, it's just  been used as a political beating stick and is being implemented on a large scale just to appear to be doing something.

Do it in care homes and then lock them down.
Do it for NHS staff on a daily basis.
Doing it for the average Joe, is waste of time and money and in fact it could make people more complacent.

[Kingster]

39 minutes ago, Lyonspride said:

don't see the point in all this testing

Seemed to work for the Germans and others that did rigorous test and trace procedures. 
 

Obviously I am, like the rest of us, no expert.