Important covid question

[Blatman]

45 minutes ago, Chris King - Webmaster and Joint North East AO said:

Interview on bbc with some immunologist type suggested immunity post covid might be (big guess) 6-18 mths but immunity from vaccine could be somewhat longer.
 

Either way - this thing will not go away easily if at all...

 

Saw the same interview. Whilst they are doing their best too much is still not known. Lot's of "could...." and "may..." in there.

The wider consensus is that humans have no immunity (that's a fact not consensus) and having anti-bodies is no guarantee of current or future immunity if one was to become re-infected BUT there is not enough evidence at the moment.

Thankfully there are hospitals and universities working on both vaccines as well treatments for those who become very ill.

 

I think in the short to mid-term social distancing and facemasks will be the norm until a reliable vaccine is brought to bear on the population.

 

Bottom of page 3 here was where I sung an aria...   

[neptune]

31 minutes ago, Chris King - Webmaster and Joint North East AO said:

 

 

I’d hate to be a “gig economy” loser living in a flat or HMO with 8 others running out of money and patience. They must be climbing the walls. 

Chris you're out of order .. just because those you class as "losers" you don't consider as successful as you. 

Without them much of our social activities wouldn't be possible. Spare a real thought for their predicament and show some respect.

 

You are after all one of the lucky ones.

[CarbonWest - Chris Broster - Bristol & Bath AO]

I'm self -isolating due to my medical vulnerability but also fortunate to be able to WFH and conduct 90% of my work via PC and Phone so not feeling that impact.  However, I am keenly aware of the impact on others lives and economic situation.

 

I am in the same camp of we are in this for 3 months with 3 weekly updates and need to follow the Govt advice as a nation or we will just end up repeating the lock down with far more damaging consequences!  As for the 'needy' press who want absolute dates and timings for the future exit strategy - they asked the same for BREXIT and couldn't be told that as it was out of the control of the Govt and CV is definitely OUT OF THEIR CONTROL.

 

Now is not the time to look back at how we did this or that but to focus on the options going forward and Boris has the weighty task of balancing Public/National Health against the Economy and future strength of the Country - all whilst trying to placate his own MPs and others from the House. I for one am looking forward to his return to Captain the ship - mainly because the SHip needs a SINGLE Captain to DIRECT it (with factual guidance from his scientific and medical and economic advisors).

 

What can we do?  I think we can follow the direction as mentioned - If only the DARWIN effect was actually allowed to rule in this day and age, then the muppets would be eradicated (instead of us saving their lives so they can breed more muppets).  We can support local and small (UK) businesses that will help to keep our money in the UK to grow the economy back up.  We can also ensure that we hold the Govt AND other MPs to account with their promises and pledges and that funding is followed through into reality - more nurses, doctors (inc GPs), police, etc - more infrastructure on the essentials - hospitals, schools, care homes, mental health (We are going to see this spike soon).

 

Oh yes and a final one - think of your Armed Forces that are currently deployed across the UK and World in support of the Governments Policies and at home in the UK helping out here there and everywhere, lots of praise for them but only when they are needed; Floods, Fire Strike, Ambulance Strike, Foot and Mouth, Olympics Security, Riots, Police Support, Search & Rescue, Ant-terrorism, etc etc - Simply substitute Soldiers for Nurses, Doctors, Bus Drivers, Truckers, Shop Assistants, Carers -   I think Rudyard Kipling got it right with

 

First published, under the title "The Queen's Uniform", in W.E. Henley’s weekly Scots Observer on 1 March 1890 

 

I WENT into a public 'ouse to get a pint o' beer,
The publican 'e up an' sez, " We serve no red-coats here."
The girls be'ind the bar they laughed an' giggled fit to die,
I outs into the street again an' to myself sez I:
O it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' " Tommy, go away " ;
But it's " Thank you, Mister Atkins," when the band begins to play
The band begins to play, my boys, the band begins to play,
O it's " Thank you, Mister Atkins," when the band begins to play.

I went into a theatre as sober as could be,
They gave a drunk civilian room, but 'adn't none for me;
They sent me to the gallery or round the music-'alls,
But when it comes to fightin', Lord! they'll shove me in the stalls!
For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' " Tommy, wait outside ";
But it's " Special train for Atkins " when the trooper's on the tide
The troopship's on the tide, my boys, the troopship's on the tide,
O it's " Special train for Atkins " when the trooper's on the tide.

Yes, makin' mock o' uniforms that guard you while you sleep
Is cheaper than them uniforms, an' they're starvation cheap.
An' hustlin' drunken soldiers when they're goin' large a bit
Is five times better business than paradin' in full kit.
Then it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an` Tommy, 'ow's yer soul? "
But it's " Thin red line of 'eroes " when the drums begin to roll
The drums begin to roll, my boys, the drums begin to roll,
O it's " Thin red line of 'eroes, " when the drums begin to roll.

We aren't no thin red 'eroes, nor we aren't no blackguards too,
But single men in barricks, most remarkable like you;
An' if sometimes our conduck isn't all your fancy paints,
Why, single men in barricks don't grow into plaster saints;
While it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an` Tommy, fall be'ind,"
But it's " Please to walk in front, sir," when there's trouble in the wind
There's trouble in the wind, my boys, there's trouble in the wind,
O it's " Please to walk in front, sir," when there's trouble in the wind.

You talk o' better food for us, an' schools, an' fires, an' all:
We'll wait for extry rations if you treat us rational.
Don't mess about the cook-room slops, but prove it to our face
The Widow's Uniform is not the soldier-man's disgrace.
For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an` Chuck him out, the brute! "
But it's " Saviour of 'is country " when the guns begin to shoot;
An' it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' anything you please;
An 'Tommy ain't a bloomin' fool - you bet that Tommy sees!

[Arm]

Great responses thanks. And remember to keep it all friendly and above board.

 

I pondered earlier on the chicken pox parties we had as kids.  I don't know if they still do them .

 Building on that  the  wife was shocked when I asked 'so if we are to get CV at some point when would you choose ?'

 

 

 

 

[Steve (sdh2903)]

1 minute ago, Arm said:

 

I pondered earlier on the chicken pox parties we had as kids.  I don't know if they still do them

 

I must have missed out on the party as i got it in my early 20s when my oldest daughter got it. I can confirm definitly worse as an adult! I was suffering far longer.

3 minutes ago, Arm said:

'so if we are to get CV at some point when would you choose ?

 

very good question, there could be tens/hundreds of thousands of people who have already had it and been asymptomatic or very mild and shrugged off. Apart from testing the frontline staff, this form of testing to see how many have already had it surely should be the next priority?

[Kingster]

21 minutes ago, neptune said:

Chris you're out of order .. just because those you class as "losers" you don't consider as successful as you. 

Without them much of our social activities wouldn't be possible. Spare a real thought for their predicament and show some respect.

 

You are after all one of the lucky ones.

I meant losers as in those that have lost out!

 

i certainly don’t class them as losers in the derogatory way!!!

[neptune]

3 minutes ago, Chris King - Webmaster and Joint North East AO said:

I meant losers as in those that have lost out!

 

i certainly don’t class them as losers in the derogatory way!!!

Well it certainly doesn't read like that Chris. Suggest you re-phrase.

[Kingster]

5 minutes ago, neptune said:

Well it certainly doesn't read like that Chris. Suggest you re-phrase.

Just did - in fact my original post was actually written with the intent of pointing out that those in that sector are suffering unfairly. It was supposed to be in sympathy with them not slagging them off. 
 

I certainly apologise if anyone else took it the wrong way and have reworded it to show how it was meant to come across. 

[Arm]

Ok thanks. Let's move on.

[CarbonWest - Chris Broster - Bristol & Bath AO]

1 hour ago, Arm said:

Building on that  the  wife was shocked when I asked 'so if we are to get CV at some point when would you choose ?'

Cracker! I've just asked the wife and the first thing she said in order

 

1. Separately, so we can alternate care for kids. 
2. Summer, so at least we can use the Garden and go for walks.
3. Once we have peaked across Nation and are on the down slope - lessons learnt and ample PPE!
4. Lastly, whenever as it won't be our choice?

[jim_l]

Right now, we have ONE single tool in our toolbox, that is, to stop human to human transmission, to reduce the R0 (the rate at which people pass it on to other people) to less than one, for long enough, then the virus is self limiting. 

 

SARS 2003 killed 1 in 10 of those it infected, almost everyone that got it was sick, which perversely was a great help in stopping it, because people were scared of it and when they were told to stay in, they stayed in, isolated, quarantined, etc. 

 

COVID-19 has very cleverly equipped itself to fool us, and kill many more people:

It kills fewer of those infected, so people think if they get it they will be OK

People that have it don’t know, and certainly don't know in the first few days, when the viral load is supposed to be much higher, so they are out spreading it. 

COVID-19 - very clever.  People - selfish, blasé, and not very clever!

 

The only tool in our toolbox, and I think we have hold of the wrong end. 

 

Jim

 

 

 

[jim_l]

The picture below is China, current cases . Imagine if everyone gets cases down to the hundreds, then, you have the resources. You know of every case, you test every case, you contact trace, you isolate or quarantine, you 'strangle' this virus.  That is how the much deadlier SARS 2003 was seen off. 

 

I am by nature an optimist, I think, 

 

 

[CarbonWest - Chris Broster - Bristol & Bath AO]

1 minute ago, jim_l said:

The picture below is China, current cases

If the numbers are actual FACT....I am by nature and experience a skepticist until PROVEN otherwise by independent, suitably qualified and experienced specialists - not State or Media. Sorry just me...it is NOT in China's interest to be totally honest about the reality of what has happened and where they are now - they need to be clear to do business and survive.

 

I do however agree that we need to identify, by testing, isolate and treat to reduce the R# to below 0.  Best way to do this - keep lock down going and follow scientific and medical advice from OUR specialists who have OUR best interests in mind.

 

Just my view

[Arm]

Super builds thanks. Wife was shocked at my question  and though I'd be dictator with that view. But it was just a searching question , not a request ! .

We are of the opinion a test would be ideal but only when it's prooving successful and accurate. At the moment  we arnt sure and a false result is as bad as no test

 

If we could strangle the virus I'd be suprised. We think it may have been here late last yr. We think we had it Jan for wife then Feb for me. Very similar symptoms but no hospital required. 

The person we may have caught it from was tested but I believe result not conclusive ie as good as failed test.

 

I don't believe the China cases. I don't even believe the German cases !

[Lyonspride]

 

It'll be interesting to see if a vaccine does happen, we know that the virus is most similar to the common cold, and we've been told for decades or more that there is no possible vaccine for the common cold.
My belief (totally of my own thinking) is that it's more profitable to sell meds to ease the common cold, than it is to eradicate it, and I think once we have some herd immunity on this coronavirus, all hope of a vaccine will disappear and it'll become yet another twice yearly annoyance we all have to treat with lemsips and such.