Steve (sdh2903) Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, Blatman said: But like the first lockdown there is no list of what constitutes "essential", and to me there shouldn't be. If we accept that supermarkets have to be open then they should be free to sell, and the public free to buy, whatever is on the shelves, from knives to kettles Agree 100% the "risk" is the shop being open not what item is being purchased. But then why should the smaller independent shops not allowed to be open and trading? Its a whole heap of avoidable hysterical mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jim_l Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Steve (sdh2903) said: the shop being open not what item is being purchased Not sure I agree, I think the risk for a communicable disease is: The shop being open * the number of people that go to the shop * the amount of time they spend in the shop Having said that I do think transient passing in shops seems unlikely to be a big factor. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arm Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Live in the North West and have 2 close friends Covid positive , both poorly and one in hospital. Brings home a bit the debate on what's acceptable and what's not. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeff oakley Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 The problem with the Welsh lockdown is that they have had local lockdown in the hotspot areas and it has still spread. Now here is a surprise (Said no one) the university towns, of which there are many in Wales have brought the numbers significantly up. Yet in Tenby, which they were saying would explode with cases during the summer, has 6 people per 100000 yet are being forced to lockdown just the same. This has destroyed the tourist season for them with little evidence. As for what is essential, if a young mum's washing machine breaks down, the local euronics shop cannot sell her one, nor can Tesco but Amazone and AO can. Or how about an old lady whose Kettle breaks, that is pretty essential yet not according to Drakeford and if they have no internet they are lost if they have no family. The old lady will boil a pan of water no doubt having been through the war but you get the point. Knee jerk reactions are wrong. And sorry to hear of your friends Ash hope they get well soon, but people in charge have to take the emotion out and balance everything. When the chancellor starts showing the cost in sterling and unemployment and Hancock shows the operations cancelled and the loss of life that has caused it will show just how difficult it is to make the right decision. Sturgeon and Drakeford are using this for political ends first but if this lock down doesn't work what next for Wales and Scotland, marshall law? Or the army delivering food parcels only? The only way out of this is what is being done, balance risk in all areas and try to keep the NHS working until the vaccine is here. It has appalled me how many experts are getting a say in the media and even the woman in Barnsley being given air time when they do not have the full picture. Starmer and Hunt, who Boris beat to lead the Tories have all said how they are glad they have not had to face this as leader, much easier to shout from the sidelines. So many government departments have failed in this, the NHS leaders and some procurement managers, the tech teams responsible for track and trace, Public Health England and the likes of the two health experts one in Scotland and Ferguson in the South who all said one thing and then did the opposite. After this some of those need removing from ever giving advice or being in charge of anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blatman Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 20 hours ago, Steve (sdh2903) said: But then why should the smaller independent shops not allowed to be open and trading? I don't know but I suspect a line has to be drawn somewhere. It's never going to be fair to everyone. 16 hours ago, jeff oakley said: So many government departments have failed in this So what would constitute a success? If we are to measure failure, a simple look at death and infection rates is no good because the government do not have direct control over the behavior of the population, despite what the conspiracy theorists and "I have rights" internet warriors may say. The Government and their response will be judged a failure by the the media and the opposition, and that would be true if the colours were reversed. Instead of this continual political points scoring the various leaders really should take stock and learn how to lead, and recognise that leading also sometimes means taking and accepting good advice even if it comes from your mortal enemy... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonPeffers Posted October 25, 2020 Author Share Posted October 25, 2020 15 minutes ago, Blatman said: So what would constitute a success? May 28 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0 "The timing of lockdowns relative to the spread of the virus had a significant effect on the total level of excess deaths, the data show." "Excess deaths is internationally recognised as the best way to compare countries’ performance in handling infectious diseases. Chris Whitty, the UK’s chief medical officer, called excess deaths “the key metric”." Success might be getting the 'key metric' to a lower level in the second covid wave compared to the first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeff oakley Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 It all depends upon the brief given. If you look at a simple task of ensuring there was enough PPE available, in some hospital trusts, like where my daughter works, they had all the PPE they needed. Their procurement staff were on the ball, others were not. The private company, overseen by PHE to hold supplies had out of date stock which then needed to be re packaged or tested before they could send it out. None of this was a surprise they would need it so pretty much a failure all around. The Track and trace app, "world beating" yet it does not work on older Iphones so I would put that as a fail as well, but whoever set the parameters or signed it off on behalf of the government may be responsible ultimately. Had they said look this will cover X people so it is better than nothing it might have been more honest but left them again open to critique. So successes for me would be people tasked with delivering a performance or goods as demanded and agreed would be a success. You are correct Blatters in saying you cannot simply measure deaths, too many variables and I am certainly not suggesting that any other party would have done better. In fact I think overall in the circumstance they have done a good job but the lack of clarity on lockdowns, the lack of standing up and saying we could have done better on this or that has led to the opposition being given an open goal. As for your comment Don which is Whitty saying the best measure is excess deaths again I have no reason to disagree if that is the only thing government is to be concerned with, but there is so much more and it would appear depending upon your view or party everyone has a different view on what is the best measure. Also the excess deaths are only being measured today, what about all those who will die because operations have been cancelled when the pandemic is waning in a year or so. The good news today is the vaccine is getting nearer, Fauci in the States is saying end of November for the US one, here December. Already Trusts are gearing up to vaccinate staff with a two injection vaccine a couple of weeks apart at the end of the year and that will roll out to the vulnerable first in the population. There is light at the end of the tunnel and then the real blame game will begin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blatman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 The problem with statistics.... Measuring a single metric will get picked apart pretty quickly. I think there will be a "league table" of things that needed to be done and against that some sort of KPI. And for the government and opposition this is where they will focus their attention during the no doubt endless blame and recrimination debates in the house that will dominate for a while. Useful as a learning process but it will just give us more to gripe about and our elected officials will again look like a badly organised chimps tea party... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonPeffers Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 Drug companies “cannot be sued for money damages in court” over injuries caused by medical countermeasures for Covid-19". Agreement between drug companies and Governments. 30 jul 2020 https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-astrazeneca-results-vaccine-liability/astrazeneca-to-be-exempt-from-coronavirus-vaccine-liability-claims-in-most-countries-idUKKCN24V2EN 28 aug 2020 https://theintercept.com/2020/08/28/coronavirus-vaccine-prep-act/ Vaccines ready soon so get in line. I don't know timescale for covid vaccine roll out but currently many problems and delays in Scotland with the annual flu vaccine programme. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonPeffers Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 29 oct 2020 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8892539/Coronavirus-UK-Prankster-27-sets-limited-company-6-dodge-rule-six.html "A prankster has set up a limited company for £6 and named his family as staff so he can have them over for a working lunch on Christmas Day." "Downing Street has confirmed a loophole exists allowing people from different households to meet in restaurants in tiers two and three if they are working. A spokesperson today said: 'There is a specific exemption which says that people from different households can gather in indoor settings that are open for work purposes." We're back to the old saying "Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools". I don't know whether to condemn or admire; all I know is he won't be alone and that includes some of our MPs if past performance is any guide to future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arm Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Count of friends with covid is now 4. Another 2 in last few days. Those looking for loopholes would be wise to see what is going on around them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonPeffers Posted November 1, 2020 Author Share Posted November 1, 2020 (edited) On 25/10/2020 at 17:09, jeff oakley said: Also the excess deaths are only being measured today, what about all those who will die because operations have been cancelled when the pandemic is waning in a year or so. The ONS will have statistics on a ongoing basis for UK excess deaths (deaths above the 5 year average for a given time period) so the total number of excess deaths will depend on the time period chosen for reference; say March 2020 to March 2021 for instance. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending16october2020 from week 13 (start 23mar2020) to week 42 (end 16oct2020) shows 59,944 deaths more than the five-year average for England and Wales. Let's hope the second lockdown doesn't adversely affect non-covid hospital cases too much as backlog already built up. Edit....Just a thought about the 83 year old Barnsley lady. She said she didn't blame Boris but his scientific advisers and it did cross my mind with Whitty initially saying 20,000 deaths for covid would be a good result, and we are very far above that, does she have a point that perhaps new advisers needed? It's an old line..... doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Edited November 1, 2020 by DonPeffers see edit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blatman Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 On 24/10/2020 at 22:40, Blatman said: I think the Welsh lockdown is a brave and actually very very good move given that vast swathes of the public can't be trusted... If it proves successful, pressure will mount for England and Scotland to follow suit. The key, as ever, is public compliance which, with a full lockdown, is easier to police. With France, Germany and Belgium heading back to full lockdown when their figures are better than hours, the Government had little room to move. The irony is plenty of non-mask non-believers will now be bleating about a new lockdown despite the fact that if there was a section of society that could be looked to for the ongoing transmission of the virus, it's likely these people. Boils my numbers 1's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeff oakley Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 It is already affecting operations. In many places they have cancelled routine operations. Now what is routine are hernias, hips, knees and bunions etc but though not life threatening, certainly life changing. The reason they are cancelling operations is there are simply not enough anesthetic Dr's to go around. They supervise ITU and cannot be in two places at once. What we will not know is how many people are not going to GP's as they cannot get seen. It is easier to get an audience with the Pope than some GP's it would appear and many older people do not have zoom etc to use instead. These possible deaths will occur after the pandemic eases but we will not know truly was it as a result of this or unavoidable. I now know a lot of people who have tested positive, however they have had it mild and had they not been instructed to get tested would not have doe so as it just felt like normal flu to them. I suspect the same happened at the start that many more had it but due to lack of testing no one knew. Only time will tell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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