Think being stuck at home is bad?

[Steve (sdh2903)]

7 minutes ago, DonPeffers said:

no doubt a full investigation will take place later.

 

Which will be a colossal waste of time as China will only release what info they want to release and the rest of the world will do nothing.

[DonPeffers]

15 minutes ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

 

Which will be a colossal waste of time as China will only release what info they want to release and the rest of the world will do nothing.

Behold, we have a soothsayer.

[jim_l]

A couple of points worth noting Jeff: 

 

" people have rolled the dice..." 

I'd suggest that 99% of people abroad had return flights booked and paid for, they are not stuck abroad for the want of money or insurance, they are stuck abroad because the airlines have cancelled flights, or in more cases, governments have closed airports, or lockdowns prevented them getting to airports. 

Going abroad with a return flight booked, and no reason whatsoever to believe that the flight will not bring them home, is not 'rolling the dice' especially when it is entirely consistent with the advice of the government experts they employ to advise them.   People were specifically advised on TV not to cancel their holidays until the govt. advice said to, or they would lose all of their money.   Note that we travelled pretty much unhindered through SARS, MERS, Swine flu, etc. 

 

 "bailing them out whatever the cost" 

There were a million Brits (that had all followed government advice) stranded abroad, and the government assigned £75 million to it,    For the 'urgent and vulnerable' repatriation flights people have signed forms committing to reimbursing the government £500 within 6 months. For my repatriation flight I paid £681 up front (for a return leg normally costing between £180 and £250) in addition to the £2000 I am having difficulty getting back from flights that were cancelled. 

 

I suspect the money has not funded flights but has funded the phenomenal diplomatic effort it has required, getting governments to allow flights, to allow travel to airports, and dealing with some difficult individual cases where individuals had tested positive or became ill. 

 

"There have been many cases of people jumping at cheap holidays" 

Few cases if any Jeff, there was no noticeable reduction in the cost of holidays in the lead up, not for a period of time that mattered, and few would have had the opportunity in the short window before we knew how serious this was.  For me this is pure supposition and not substantiated. 

 

So now hopefully we are better informed about how this happened to people, that repatriation has cost individuals a lot of money, many are thousands of pounds worse off, some have had traumatic experiences.  Not the time to be pointing fingers in my opinion. 

 

Jim

[Lyonspride]

14 minutes ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

 

Which will be a colossal waste of time as China will only release what info they want to release and the rest of the world will do nothing.

That China in a nutshell, they don't give a damn, it's "accept what we tell you, or do one", when you see reports and excuses made by China regarding various different things, you think "do they think we're stupid?", but actually they know that what they're saying is ridiculous, they're laughing at us because they know there's not a damn thing anyone can do about it.

I've seen data to suggest that SARS-CoV-2 was being reported in Wuhan China as early as late November, but local authorities were threatening and/or throwing journalists (including social media influencers and foreign journalists) into jail to stop the spread (of the facts, not of the virus).


 

[Steve (sdh2903)]

11 minutes ago, DonPeffers said:

Behold, we have a soothsayer.

 

Nope just a realist.

[DonPeffers]

Fine giving an opinion but resist trying to predict the future.

 

The W.H.O will be under scrutiny as well, based on the published reaction of at least one world leader.

[Blatman]

15 minutes ago, DonPeffers said:

The W.H.O will be under scrutiny as well, based on the published reaction of at least one world leader.

 

Who is now suddenly a reliable source?

Trump is trying to deflect blame for his inaction on to the WHO in order to ensure re-election in November.

The WHO may well have screwed up, but I want to hear that from governments less likely to announce it on Twitter...

[DonPeffers]

2 minutes ago, Blatman said:

 

Who is now suddenly a reliable source?

Trump is trying to deflect blame for his inaction on to the WHO in order to ensure re-election in November.

The WHO may well have screwed up, but I want to hear that from governments less likely to announce it on Twitter...

Other leaders are reacting. Checkout Macron.     https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52319462

[Alan France]

1 hour ago, Chris King - Webmaster and Joint North East AO said:

Apparently the big problem isn’t flour - it’s packaging.

I believe that’s exactly right. I read that we have 50 flour mills for large volumes, like tankers and big bags, but of those only 12 have small packing lines.

[Steve (sdh2903)]

1 hour ago, DonPeffers said:

Fine giving an opinion but resist trying to predict the future.

ok I see your point, but can you honestly see China, a country that censors the internet even for its own people, is going to to be open and honest about its shortcomings in this whole episode to outside investigations? Not a prayer.

[Blatman]

1 hour ago, DonPeffers said:

Other leaders are reacting. Checkout Macron.     https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52319462

"Things have happened which we don't know about"

Insightful comment there...

Politicians and world leaders have a problem, same as the media. They have to say something because if they don't they leave a vacuum and that gets filled by social media and the conspiracy theorists. So politicians put out placeholders that look like action (and the media will sensationalise anything they can to keep people scared). But we all do it (not keeping people scared, placeholders). We all send emails to people asking us for stuff to say that we're working on it and we'll get back to them. The statements coming out right now are the political equivalent of that, they give the appearance of action.. 

 

[Alan France]

24 minutes ago, Blatman said:

Politicians and world leaders have a problem, same as the media.

 

I think Macron is making his pitch to be the “main man” in Europe as he sees Merkel in a difficult position in Germany. 

[Blatman]

20 minutes ago, Alan France said:

I think Macron is making his pitch to be the “main man” in Europe as he sees Merkel in a difficult position in Germany. 

 

He's hardly in an imperious position at home, is he? He may be trying to turn that around but if he does it using Covid-19 as a platform that could (and should) backfire.

[DonPeffers]

13 feb 2020   https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/chinas-wild-animal-trade-changed-for-good-by-coronavirus.html

 

"Permanent ban coming?

On February 3, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave the greatest signal yet that a full ban is on the cards. Chairing a meeting to study the prevention and control of the coronavirus, he said “it is necessary to strengthen market supervision, resolutely ban and severely crack down on illegal wildlife markets and trade, and control major public health risks from the source,” Chinese news agency Xinhua reported."

 

While initial noises from China made it look like 'wet markets' (live and dead animals, including wild animals, for sale in an environment where their bodily fluids slosh around) would be banned, they have now started to reopen according to recent press reports. An earlier post from Blatman suggested 'wet markets' reopening was likely as China returned to its old ways.

The West has repeatedly warned China of the dangers of virus mutation and dangerous disease emanating from such unhygienic markets after previous viral outbreaks like Sars 2003.

 

If the dire predictions of UK 35% GDP reduction and an additional 2 million plus unemployed become a reality, and are reflected in other Western countries, then everything could be up for grabs.

 

If scientists can make an early breakthrough with a safe vaccine to stop the disease then things might return to some form of normality fairly soon. We'll need to see if the hoped for Sep 2020 vaccine comes to pass.

 

 

[Blatman]

19 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

An earlier post from Blatman suggested 'wet markets' reopening was likely as China returned to its old ways.

 

Great discussion about this on Reddit seemingly lead by ex-pats now living and working in China or who are frequent visitors and seem to know the country well.

 

19 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

If scientists can make an early breakthrough with a safe vaccine to stop the disease then things might return to some form of normality fairly soon.

 

"Fairly soon..." is the key here. When lockdown was called I told myself that we would be confined to quarters for three months, so end of June. There were stories in the press (yes, I know...) of people being disappointed or upset that the initial three week period had been extended as if it was going to be three weeks and done.

As I have said elsewhere, a change of thinking is required at the moment from individual expectation right through to government management. EVERYTHING needs to be re-thought for this new short and mid-term reality.

 

The Tokyo 2020 organisers have already said that if there is no vaccine by early 2021 then the the games likely will not go ahead in 2021 either. This is not much of a surprise. Humans have no immunity to this. Even previously infected and recovered people have not yet been adequately assessed for future immunity.

So lockdown gets lifted at some point but so what? We are all still going to be at risk. We will have social distancing, a ban on large gatherings and maybe gloves and facemasks when out in public for the rest of this year and likely into next year. Unless scientists can make extraordinary advances in the next few months AND have that progress backed up by the ability to actually manufacture the required RELIABLE tests for both active infections and antibody tests for immunity as well as safe vaccines on an unprecedented scale, we're going to have to restrict EVERYTHING we do for many many months.

 

We're coming up to 5 weeks in. We have a VERY long way to go...