Chris Whitty, the UK’s chief medical officer, called excess deaths “the key metric”.

[DonPeffers]

today https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0  

"Excess deaths is internationally recognised as the best way to compare countries’ performance in handling infectious diseases."

 

"The UK has suffered the highest rate of deaths from the coronavirus pandemic among countries that produce comparable data, according to excess mortality figures. The UK has registered 59,537 more deaths than usual since the week ending March 20, indicating that the virus has directly or indirectly killed 891 people per million."

 

I have been aware of articles relating to excess deaths for many months now but have always resisted posting them instead concentrating on official stats. DHSC and ONS.

 

Regarding today's track and trace launch can you be sure the telephone caller saying isolate for 14 days is really the NHS?

 

I can't say if the opinion is correct but I read Sweden supposedly better prepared for a 2nd wave of covid as community will have been exposed to covid (borders closed but no internal lockdown) and many might have built up some immunity.

 

Our planned quarantine, coming as lockdown is being eased, seems back to front compared to elsewhere but it is what it is.

 

Hoping our covid infection is coming under control and we avoid a 2nd wave.

[DonPeffers]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8575687/England-highest-level-excess-deaths-Europe-coronavirus-pandemic.html  

 

"By the end of May, England had seen the highest overall excess deaths — more people dying than average from all causes — out of 21 European countries, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Other countries had higher 'peaks' in excess deaths between February and June but England endured the longest continuous period of elevated mortality rate — meaning it had the highest excess death rate overall.

 

The analysis of all-cause mortality allows experts to picture the impact of the coronavirus pandemic not only from deaths involving Covid-19, but also excess deaths that have occurred as an indirect result."

 

Lessons learned is a well-worn phrase and let's hope they have been learned before a second wave of covid arrives.

 

Having seen on TV scenes of ram-packed Liverpool pubs on 22 Jul 2020 when Liverpool FC were presented with the Premier League winners trophy I get the impression 'living for today' is more important to many than beating covid.

 

I hope I am mistaken.

[Blatman]

On 28/05/2020 at 12:28, DonPeffers said:

"Excess deaths is internationally recognised as the best way to compare countries’ performance in handling infectious diseases."

 

I think the missing element there is "at the moment", as the sands seem to shift every few weeks as more is learned. 

I was never happy with the changes made that meant Covid-19 became a notifiable disease. It seems to me like it could (COULD, not DOES) skew the metrics a bit. But then again maybe the skew is within the margins. I guess we'll learn more as ever more analysis is done. 

[DonPeffers]

Mis-recording a covid death as something else leaves the excess deaths figure unaltered as it looks at deaths at a time of year and the the increase in 2020 over a 5 year average.

[Blatman]

Yeah that was the bit I was missing in all of that.

Nothing to see here, move along...  

 

It's been an emotional day...

[Arm]

Or as per the other thread it's going to burn it's way through us whatever we do. Almost back to my thread earlier in the year. When do you want it !

 

I see no clear evidence it can be stopped.

[Jonk179]

[jeff oakley]

It cannot be stopped until we have a vaccine but what is clear is we now know more about treating people and the death rate will be less. 

 

It is correct that excess deaths is a measure, however there are so many issues in the countries make up to mean that direct comparisons are  not a good measure.

 

We have a more densely populated country than most of the EU and the way we have so many older people in care homes made this easy to spread in them.

 

The human cost of this is huge and every death is regrettable but not avoidable, what is equally huge is the mental and financial impact this will have on all of us. Unemployment is going to surge upwards as Furlough comes to and end and people will start to lose homes, get evicted when they cannot pay.

 

Unless the police are going to actually be enforcing lock downs and social distancing in draconian ways, people will ignore the rules if they feel safe.

 

We keep hearing about the mass gatherings causing spikes, yet there hasn't been a huge upward surge in Liverpool, or Leeds or in London where the street parties have taken place. Those protesting the BLM cause did not social distance where is the upward surge from them.

 

There are pockets, Swindon 59 in one warehouse tested positive, these are not ill just tested as one person became ill, and now some want to lock down Swindon why?

 

Leicester, we know why, they locally locked down after a huge spike, now not an issue as the people involved in causing the spread have been stopped. 

 

We need to do what we can but let as many as possible live as normal as possible and deal with the fall out. I say this as the father of an anesthetics Dr who works in intensive care, in her hospital where she is this week, they have not got one single case of Covid and this was an area with a very high rate before.

 

We can analyse figures for ever but the economy, feeding people, etc is a key thing that we need to carry on trying to protect. 

[jim_l]

 

It is fair to describe excess deaths as the 'key' metric,  job one is to keep people alive, but it is important to keep in mind that it isn't the only metric.

 

If it was the only metric then, whatever the impact on law and order, national sanity, lockdown fatigue or the collapse of the economy. we would still be in full lockdown now wouldn't we?  We are still losing 3000 people a month and we seem to have accepted that as the point where we will return to a functioning society.

 

As I have said before, we also have to recognise that we may be in between rounds one and two of a boxing match, we took a hiding, perhaps our exposure in wave 1 is greater than that in the 'hard and early lockdown' countries, and at a high price, we have bought ourselves some immune population? 

 

Who knows, we can hope. 

 

 

 

[Mighty Mart]

We need to know what the outcome is from the first wave first before thinking about a 2nd wave imho....

it's not just about the unfortunate deaths now...

 

People catching it from the first wave and seemingly getting over it are now finding the virus is affecting them in other ways it seems, and know one yet knows where this will lead to...

Mart.

[jeff oakley]

I agree Jim, but what we need to understand is of those 3000 deaths how many died with the virus and how many died because of it and how many are truly excess avoidable deaths 

 

Excess deaths include everything and if you go back just a few years you will see peaks and troughs due to normal flu causing spikes. 

 

My wife works in the NHS and part of her team are still trying to get a true picture on deaths and true cause. Take Eddie Large, died in hospital in Southmead where he was taken due to a heart issue that he had been having treatment for years for, sadly he died but during his postmorton they found Covid-19 that went down as a causation even though it was the heart failure that killed him.

 

We cannot hide away for ever, we need to accept that death is a final journey and we cannot save everyone. In history we have had the Plague, Spanish Flu, etc that killed a lot, we did not do anything like now and we survived.  

[jim_l]

Yes – prompted by your comment Jeff, I gave this a coat of thinking about, and making some assumptions, but theorising, rather than presenting a conclusion:

 

If, as is believed, 10 – 15 % of the population have had the virus, and we record 10,000 deaths in a week normally, it seems likely that any week would have seen 1000 or more ‘other cause’ deaths recorded as ‘with Covid’

 

In the six-week peak of our wave 1, registering 15.000 or 20,000 deaths a week, this would have meant deaths ‘with Covid’ would be a 5% or 7% percent over-estimate, not accurate but not completely useless.

 

Now we are at or below the normal weekly death rate, then deaths ‘with Covid’ is a perfectly useless number.  We need to know ‘how many people is it killing' ,  not ‘of the people that are dying, how many have previously had it’