Covid statistics show care essential.

[Alan France]

2 hours ago, Stuart said:

Yet, within hours, British experts had branded the modelling as “absurd”, and by this weekend the IHME had revised down its estimate to 37,494 – and admitted it could be as low as 26,000 which is not hugely dissimilar to Imperial College’s figure of around 20,000.

 

Spot on Stuart.

[jeff oakley]

The problem with this is that the media are using this to sell papers or add space.  It was a day or so ago that claimed 51% of those in iTu or ICU depending upon where you are die. Suggesting this was awful. Without Covid the average death rate was just over 30%. 

 

Now all deaths are sad but those figures are nowhere near as bad, a 20% increase and remember last year over 20K extra people died from normal flu and not a change to how we lived.

 

The other key thing after all this is seeing what the condition of people who died were in.  From what I understand many were obese, had COPD or some other lung condition. Smokers feature pretty high and there appears to be disparity between men and women plus an apparent statistical blip in BAME patients.  The papers always say "no underlying issues" but in reality that does not mean they had no issues. One for example died of heart failure from an unknown fault exposed by Covid_19. All needs to be published after a full a through assessment.

 

There is also the way we live has clearly had an effect. The UK is densely populated in comparison to other countries and the two hotspots are unsurprisingly London and Birmingham area less dense have less cases.

 

You also have to set these deaths alongside the results of the lockdown on mental and physical health, with increase of abuse and domestic violence. This is why we need to wait until this is over before we can see what worked and what did not.

 

We also need to look at how vulnerable we appear to have been economically and also our ability to get products, Almost all the PPE comes from China and with lead times etc and quality is not always top notch hence the return of the testing kits the NHS was waiting for. We need to learn from this and make sure we are never in this position again

[Blatman]

46 minutes ago, jeff oakley said:

The problem with this is that the media are using this to sell papers or add space.

100%. I hope the press get independent scrutiny on this from an appropriate body. I'm usually an advocate of the press as on balance they do a fairly good job. But right now they are letting us and themselves down quite badly.

 

47 minutes ago, jeff oakley said:

The papers always say "no underlying issues" but in reality that does not mean they had no issues. One for example died of heart failure from an unknown fault exposed by Covid_19.

A very good friend of mine in his mid-to-late 40's was ill last year with what looked like a bad cold that wouldn't shift. He developed other symptoms and ended up in hospital with sepsis. He recovered. But in all the testing it was revealed that he had a genetic blood disorder that he had absolutely no idea about. The result was all of his family have now been tested and are now receiving appropriate advice. My point is that I'm betting there are LOTS of times where a patient may have as yet undiagnosed but significant contributory factors, underlining the point that there is no substitute for good testing and good analysis with the data presented without press sensationalism getting in the way.

 

52 minutes ago, jeff oakley said:

Almost all the PPE comes from China and with lead times etc and quality is not always top notch hence the return of the testing kits the NHS was waiting for. We need to learn from this and make sure we are never in this position again

Japan, among many other countries have started to move away from China as a manufacturing hub. Japan are singled out as their government has set aside the Yen equivalent of 2 billion US dollars to actively help and encourage companies to make a move away from China. 

[Arm]

Not the newspapers again !

[Jim RS]

I think history records the rise and fall of particular regional strengths with their extreme effects on other areas. This in the past this has been through direct confrontation but since the instigation of extreme weaponry the progression has been towards monetary gains and advantages. The consequences of these consumer led  invasions will always drive on economies and results in controls of many commodities, in this case PPE and controls.

We have many choices in future as to how to develop but humans are strange creatures and believe they know best with this being a sharp lesson by nature that we don't.