DonPeffers Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Location Confirmed Deaths % fatality rate United Kingdom 84,279 10,612 12.5 United States 561,103 22,106 3.9 Spain 166,831 17,209 10.3 Italy 156,363 19,899 12.7 Germany 127,854 3,022 2.3 France 95,403 14,393 15.0 China 82,160 3,341 4.0. "UK could have Europe's worst coronavirus death rate, says adviser Daily death toll shows situation is comparable with other badly hit countries, says Jeremy Farrar" 12 apr 2020 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/uk-could-have-europes-worst-coronavirus-death-rate-says-pandemic-expert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamR Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Or we could just be doing less testing. Stats can always be spun. For example, I know at least 4 people who are 99% sure they've had it (all the timings and symptoms add up) but haven't been tested, and only one person who has been a confirmed case. All 5 have recovered, only 1 of those will have gone down on the stats. Based upon that (albeit very small sample), out fatality rate is actually 1/4 of what that report shows. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingster Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, AdamR said: Or we could just be doing less testing. Stats can always be spun. I think it’s a given. (On both counts!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan France Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 30 minutes ago, Chris King - Webmaster and Joint North East AO said: I think it’s a given. (On both counts!) The % fatality figures from Germany highlight that. More testing = more cases = lower fatality % Daily cases and daily fatalities are at least consistent values but only on the basis that both figures are probably wrong. Even the ONS registered deaths only takes into account that Covid-19 appears on the certificate. The patient may not have died from the virus. As testing ramps up figures may have more meaning but not until fatalities at home and in care homes are included. "UK could have Europe's worst coronavirus death rate, says adviser“ Poor reporting, I hope the Guardian also explained the revised figures behind that item, and perhaps confirmed this isn’t some sort of competition. Sad, sad times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arm Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 I'd like to see more analysis for example deaths by age group along with deaths per 1000 population , deaths per existing life threatening conditions. I'm sure those grouping will be different from country to country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonPeffers Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 (edited) 12 apr 2020 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/uk-could-have-europes-worst-coronavirus-death-rate-says-pandemic-expert "Prof Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a pandemics expert on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the figures of almost 1,000 daily hospital deaths showed the UK was in a similar situation to other European countries that had been badly affected. Just hours before the news that the number of hospital deaths had hit 10,612 as of 5pm on Saturday, Farrar told BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show: "“Numbers in the UK have continued to go up. I do hope that we are coming close to the numbers reducing. But yes, the UK is likely to be certainly one of the worst, if not the worst affected country in Europe.” He held up Germany as an example of a country with a lower death rate that had “very early on introduced testing on a scale that was remarkable and continued to do that and isolate individuals and look after those who got very sick”. “By isolating those that were positive it meant they weren’t able to infect other people,” he said. There were undoubtedly lessons to learn from that, he added." The Professor does identify Germany's widespread testing as a likely reason for their lower fatality rate because infected could be isolated earlier. Analysts at Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus daily death toll was (not 54 as initially posted but) 359 as per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed. Still a long way to go and we hope that a prediction of 66000 covid deaths by august will be incorrect. Edited May 13, 2020 by DonPeffers 3rd last line corrected----(not 54 as initially posted but) 359 as per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonPeffers Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Arm said: I'd like to see more analysis for example deaths by age group along with deaths per 1000 population , deaths per existing life threatening conditions. I'm sure those grouping will be different from country to country. As I understand it once a pandemic has been declared by the W.H.O. then if someone dies having tested positive for the virus then that is recorded as cause of death even if other factors played a major part. The comedian Eddie Large was near death with heart failure but his death has been recorded as covid. The W.H.O. rule for record keeping will apply to all countries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arm Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 I think related or caused by is relatively fair. Be good to see different age groups and how that compares across many countries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Be careful of the political angle too. I also read this: "Apocalyptic predictions that Britain’s coronavirus death toll will be the largest in Europe have abounded over the past week. The “scaremongering” began after a report from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based at the University of Washington in Seattle, suggested the UK could reach 66,000 deaths by August, peaking at nearly 3,000 a day, and accounting for more than 40 per cent of total deaths across the Continent. The figures were gleefully seized upon by the Left-wing press and emblazoned over front pages as evidence that the Government’s strategy has failed. Yet, within hours, British experts had branded the modelling as “absurd”, and by this weekend the IHME had revised down its estimate to 37,494 – and admitted it could be as low as 26,000 which is not hugely dissimilar to Imperial College’s figure of around 20,000. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonPeffers Posted April 13, 2020 Author Share Posted April 13, 2020 I think I found it Stuart. April 10, 2020 https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom 37,494 COVID-19 deaths projected by August 4, 2020-----COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020. Let's hope it's as few as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve (sdh2903) Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 The heartless question is how many would have died anyway? Look at the stats for the figures. The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 20 March 2020 (week 12) was 10,645; this represents a decrease of 374 deaths registered compared with the previous week (week 11). The average number of deaths for the corresponding week over the previous five years was 10,573; this means that the overall number of deaths in week 12 of 2020 was slightly higher than previous years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim RS Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Steve (sdh2903) said: The heartless question is how many would have died anyway? Look at the stats for the figures. The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 20 March 2020 (week 12) was 10,645; this represents a decrease of 374 deaths registered compared with the previous week (week 11). The average number of deaths for the corresponding week over the previous five years was 10,573; this means that the overall number of deaths in week 12 of 2020 was slightly higher than previous years. The real question is how many people would have died if the controls hadn't been instigated. With a UK population of 66.65m the figures would have been horrendous and our facilities couldn't have coped. The NHS and other essential workers have done a fantastic job but faced with these numbers it would have been Armageddon and more lives sacrificed with the aftermath - personally the prospect would have been bleak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blatman Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snags said: With a UK population of 66.65m the figures would have been horrendous and our facilities couldn't have coped. The NHS and other essential workers have done a fantastic job but faced with these numbers it would have been Armageddon and more lives sacrificed with the aftermath - personally the prospect would have been bleak. We'll know from Sweden who have done very little to lockdown their country. A per-capita analysis of their numbers in due course should make for interesting reading. At the moment they have 10918 confirmed cases with 919 deaths shows a mortality of just under 1% which is the number bandied about as what to expect in the final analysis. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corsechris Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Conversely, the countries that have done zero testing have had zero Civid deaths, so clearly they are doing way better than Everyone else..... Until the dust settles, the numbers are largely meaningless for comparisons. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve (sdh2903) Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Exactly, the numbers can be spun to support any argument at present. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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