EU transition period when leaving

[Paul Hurdsfield - Joint Manchester AO]

They are talking about two years or more to get out if they make their minds up to finally go!

Back in the day I thought joining the common market was a good idea (got that one wrong)

Just wondering when we originally decided to join, how long did that take?

Or was it just a case of your in now, give us your money?

[Exitus]

We initially applied to join the European communities in 1961, but that was vetoed. We reapplied in 1969. The negotiations took about four years, and we joined in 1973. We started to pay into the EU at that point. There were then of course about two years more negotiation before the Maasricht treaty was signed in 1992.

 

Moving to the current EU, Croatia asked to join on 03 October 2005. They finally finished the negotiations and actually joined (and started to pay into the EU budget...) 8 years later in July 2013.

 

Where we ever got the idea that this would be quick and easy from, I don't know. Joining the EU has always taken many years to negotiate. It is in no way a surprise that leaving is going to take just as long, if not longer. If anything, leaving is more complicated than joining.

[Exitus]

On a similar note, Turkey also asked to join in 2005. The negotiations haven't gone too well, largely because the Turkish Government can't get their s**t together, don't seem know what they actually want, and keep contradicting themselves. The negotiations have therefore just hit (on the third of October) their 14 year anniversary.   

[DonPeffers]

2 hours ago, Exitus said:

Moving to the current EU, Croatia asked to join on 03 October 2005. They finally finished the negotiations and actually joined (and started to pay into the EU budget...) 8 years later in July 2013.

 

Where we ever got the idea that this would be quick and easy from, I don't know. Joining the EU has always taken many years to negotiate. It is in no way a surprise that leaving is going to take just as long, if not longer. If anything, leaving is more complicated than joining.

From  https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en

Breakdown of Croatia’s finances with the EU in 2017: 

Total EU spending in Croatia: € 0.663 billion.    Total Croatian contribution to the EU budget: € 0.359 billion.

Croatia is a net EU budget recipient.

 

From   https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/poland_en

Breakdown of Poland’s finances with the EU in 2017:

Total EU spending in Poland: € 11.921 billion.   Total Polish contribution to the EU budget: € 3.048 billion

Poland is the largest net EU budget recipient at about 8Bn euros yearly.

 

The answer to the question 'Where we ever got the idea that this (EU withdrawal) would be quick and easy from, I don't know' 

is we got the idea from the architect of the EU Referendum namely ex-PM David Cameron who on the eve of the referendum on television 22 June 2016 said IIRC (pretty sure I do) that 'within hours of a Leave vote he would have activated article 50 and we would be out of the EU'.

[pistonbroke]

Just goes to show how much you can trust a politician 

 

Case of vote for me , then i will tell you how its gonna be 

[Exitus]

2 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

The answer to the question 'Where we ever got the idea that this (EU withdrawal) would be quick and easy from, I don't know' 

is we got the idea from the architect of the EU Referendum namely ex-PM David Cameron who on the eve of the referendum on television 22 June 2016 said IIRC (pretty sure I do) that 'within hours of a Leave vote he would have activated article 50 and we would be out of the EU'.

 

I'm sure you're right and he did say that. Unfortunately that wasn't a credible understanding of the process then, and still isn't now. It would have been more accurate for him to say 'Within hours of a leave vote he would have activated article 50 and we would begin the process of leaving the EU'.

 

I agree with Pistonbroke. Just goes to show how much you could trust him. I suppose that you have to decide whether what he said was an outright lie, or merely overblown political rhetoric. 

 

The problem is that anyone with any experience in international relations or international law could have told you that it would take years. Article 50 literally states that the first stage is a two year period in which to negotiate how to withdraw. Its pretty obvious that there will then be another period of negotiation as to any new relationship after that. Unfortunately, between Gove and his hatred of experts, and the constant squeals of 'project fear' any time someone mentioned that Brexit might be difficult, people seem to have lost track of reality.

 

I hasten to add that this isn't a problem with Brexit. We voted to leave, we are going to leave. It was always apparent though that leaving was going to take a long time. If you want to leave, you just need to be patient and allow the process to happen.

 

As a fun fact, the withdrawal agreement was supposed (by the experts as well) to be the quick and easy part of the negotiation. Imagine how long the next phase of the negotiation is going to last! We're going to be hearing about, and discussing this, for a good decade or two yet. But once again - we knew that before the referendum. That's why Rees-Mogg stated that he expected 10 years of disruption after Brexit.

[Exitus]

As far as the fact that Croatia is a net recipient, yes, you're right. I'm not sure how relevant that is to my point though. They pay money in, they get a bit more back. The point is that they had no dealings with the EU budget at all, for the 8 years during which they were trying to join. That answers Paul's question above.

 

I didn't even mention Poland. 

[DonPeffers]

True no Country pays into the EU budget until it has joined and there are a fair number of net recipient Countries.

 

You didn't mention Poland and I merely provided factual information to give an idea of the EU funding. Hungary is approx. 4Bn euros net recipient yearly.

 

Although no Country pays EU contributions before joining, the EU want UK to continue our budget commitment (net contributor) until the 7 year budget end period 31 Dec 2020 and if a transition beyond Dec 2020 was agreed it would entail further contributions towards the 2021 to 2027 budget which is to be voted on in March 2020.

[Exitus]

Yeah, so we absolutely need to get the withdrawal agreement signed before dec 2020. Getting stuck into the next EU funding cycle would be ridiculous. 
 

As far as them expecting us to continue paying money into the current budget, once again I’m not sure why that Is a surprise. They’d told us before the referendum that they would still expect it. 
 

I’m also not sure why that is seen as unreasonable. If I paid off my mortgage tomorrow, I’d have to pay a fairly hefty fee for the privilege. If I wanted to escape from my phone contract earlier, I’d have to pay a fee as well, to make up for what I’d promised to pay them in the first place. It’s really not uncommon. 
 

Finally, the thirty-something billion we now owe them (over the next 10 years of the payment plan) is frankly piddle**** in budgetary terms. Paying it will make next to no difference to the UK. Not paying it will poison any attempt at a future with the EU. 

[Exitus]

I’m also more than aware of how the EU budget works. I just generally see it as a positive thing. Not much different to the International aid budget, just targeted a little closer to home. A charitable donation if you will to those less well off that us.

[DonPeffers]

I'm not surprised the EU would like UK to pay contributions up to end Dec 2020 although legal opinions vary over whether there is any legal liability to pay--as you say better to retain some goodwill which has been pretty shot after 40 months of dithering regarding withdrawal.

 

Looking at EU budget   https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/czechia_en

Breakdown of Czechia’s finances with the EU in 2017

Total EU spending in Czechia: € 3.895 billion.  Total Czechia contribution to the EU budget: € 1.282 billion---so about 2.6BN euros yearly net recipient Czechia.

 

I would like to think that the major recipient Nations would closely adhere to EU rules yet  "ECJ LAUNCHES HEARINGS INTO MIGRATION QUOTA CASE AGAINST CZECH REPUBLIC, HUNGARY AND POLAND"  Tom McEnchroe 15-05-2019  https://www.radio.cz/en/section/news/ecj-lauches-hearings-into-migration-quota-case-against-czech-republic-hungary-and-poland

 

The case above was first referred to ECJ in late Spring 2017 but ECJ cases can take 5 to 7 years to resolve looking at past cases.