Are we ready for Minority Report-style policing and is it money well spent?

[DonPeffers]

yesterday   https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/crime-prediction-technology-police-trials-uk-government-funding-a9007556.html

 

"Police testing technology to 'assess the risk of someone committing a crime' in UK"

"The programme was awarded £4.5m government funding in 2018-19 and is now being given another £5m from the Police Transformation Fund.....to develop the National Data Analytics Solution (NDAS), which it hopes will be ruled out across England and Wales."

 

Sounds like a computer is doing what Jack Regan did in the 70's fictional police series The Sweeney in rounding up the' usual suspects'.

[jeff oakley]

It will never be allowed to be work even if it does. Imagine the uproar if it ran the algorithm and it said most likely to commit knife crime was young black people? We had that before based on facts but politically stop and search was seen as a step too far, now look where we are.

 

We need police on the beat with enough power and support to do the job needed they know who the wrong un's are all day long 

[Lyonspride]

What they're not saying is that this data is largely going to be coming from our internet and social media usage, because ultimately we gave away our privacy with a loud cry of "I don't care, i've got nothing to hide", well I hope people remember that when they go online to innocently buy flammable chemicals and decide to stock up on nuts/bolts/fixings for their next project at the same time.

[Blatman]

On 18/07/2019 at 17:44, DonPeffers said:

which it hopes will be ruled out across England and Wales."

 

Freudian slip there...

[Blatman]

On 18/07/2019 at 17:44, DonPeffers said:

which it hopes will be ruled out across England and Wales."

 

Freudian slip there...

 

23 hours ago, jeff oakley said:

We need police on the beat with enough power and support to do the job needed they know who the wrong un's are all day long 

 

If we had a million police but they weren't allowed to stop and question suspects, what's the point? The support that is required is a bit more trust in them and their methods.

 

13 hours ago, Lyonspride said:

because ultimately we gave away our privacy with a loud cry of "I don't care, i've got nothing to hide", well I hope people remember that when they go online to innocently buy flammable chemicals and decide to stock up on nuts/bolts/fixings for their next project at the same time.

 

You haven't got a clue, have you? I buy flammable chemicals all the time and I'm pretty sure all of us on here buy petrol ALL the time. Some of us store it in jerry cans. Is that suspicious? 

I own two Westfields, two motorbikes, a road car and with my brother and father there are 6 cars in the family. My brother is a race car engineer. We have enough nuts/bolts/nails/ball bearings/tools/solvents and "bladed tools" to start a decent sized hardware store. But we don't commit crimes, so what exactly is the problem? The police aren't going to randomly knock on our door and accuse us of a crime based on our internet shopping history. And if they did randomly knock on our door and accuse us, you know what, they still have to PROVE the accusation with EVIDENCE. Simply owning all that stuff is only evidence that we spend a LOT of money on buying things.

By the way, I own a laptop too. I have programs for work that crack passwords, encrypt documents and emails and allow man in the middle attacks and wifi snooping. Does that make me a hacker? Well you could accuse me of it, but have you any evidence that I am a hacker? NO, because I'm not. Pretty much all the network guys I know have the same tools on their laptops too.

Or even worse, I ride a motorcycle. Does that mean I'm guilty of any crime committed nearby by a criminal on a motorcycle when I'm in the vicinity?

But wait, my motorcycle was stolen and used in a crime about 4 weeks ago. The police questioned me... for about 60 seconds. It went like this: 

"Hello is that Blatman?" 

"Yes, this is he" 

"Do you know where your bike is?" 

"Well given that you're the police and you're asking me I'm going to say no..." 

"Well we're sorry to report it's been stolen and used in a crime. We recovered some property from the panniers which were kicked off by the thief as he made his escape. You can collect what we recovered from the local nick any time that is convenient" 

"Thanks for letting me know"

So why didn't they assume my guilt, arrest me and question me? A bike was used in the perpetration of a crime and I own the bike. It's an open and shut case. 

Give me strength...

[Lyonspride]

12 hours ago, Blatman said:

 

 

So why didn't they assume my guilt, arrest me and question me? A bike was used in the perpetration of a crime and I own the bike. It's an open and shut case. 

Give me strength...

Because at this point it is still Police officers making the decisions, not a computer.

In the future that may not be the case and this is kinda where this links to "Minority Report", because once a "perfect" system has been developed, the decision making in all but the most serious offences, could well be handed off to a computer.

[Captain Colonial]

13 hours ago, Blatman said:

You haven't got a clue, have you?

 

The Diplomatic Service’s loss is our gain.  Ease up on the hammers there please Blatters, that’s a bit OTT dontchathink?

[DonPeffers]

16 hours ago, Blatman said:

 

Freudian slip there...

 

Well spotted. The Independent newspaper has incorrectly typed ruled instead of rolled.

 

The NDAS gathers 'data' and calculates probabilities, but how accurate and meaningful are the results?

[DonPeffers]

2 hours ago, Captain Colonial said:

 

The Diplomatic Service’s loss is our gain.  Ease up on the hammers there please Blatters, that’s a bit OTT dontchathink?

 

A new UK Ambassador to the USA is needed.

[Kit Car Electronics]

Personally, I'd be disappointed if Policing didn't involve large quantities of data processing and some form of predictive analysis. We rely on this for all other aspects of modern life, from supermarket shopping to energy supply, to parts distribution etc. 

 

Why not look at crime prevention in a similar way?

[DonPeffers]

31 minutes ago, Kit Car Electronics said:

Personally, I'd be disappointed if Policing didn't involve large quantities of data processing and some form of predictive analysis. We rely on this for all other aspects of modern life, from supermarket shopping to energy supply, to parts distribution etc. 

 

Why not look at crime prevention in a similar way?

 

The 'data' can be wrongly interpreted so if you like someone's posts or are photographed with someone who is later identified as a criminal then your score goes up based on that intel.

[jeff oakley]

30 minutes ago, Kit Car Electronics said:

Personally, I'd be disappointed if Policing didn't involve large quantities of data processing and some form of predictive analysis. We rely on this for all other aspects of modern life, from supermarket shopping to energy supply, to parts distribution etc. 

 

Why not look at crime prevention in a similar way?

 I agree, however we already have problems with people moaning about racial profiling so unless we have a support for the system and are willing to ignore the cries from minority groups what will it's use be.

 

As Blatters mentioned, stop and search was stopped due to a disproportionate amount of young blacks being stopped, but in reality how many old white or black women would be carrying knives, so why target them? Therefore unless the information is allowed to be used why have it? 

 

[DonPeffers]

4 minutes ago, jeff oakley said:

in reality how many old white or black women would be carrying knives, so why target them? 

 

 

Sadly recent increasing reports of street attacks on very elderly.

 

Might be an idea if the elderly did carry.

 

I guess my NDAS profile score has just gone up--Oops.

[Kit Car Electronics]

54 minutes ago, jeff oakley said:

 I agree, however we already have problems with people moaning about racial profiling so unless we have a support for the system and are willing to ignore the cries from minority groups what will it's use be.

 

As Blatters mentioned, stop and search was stopped due to a disproportionate amount of young blacks being stopped, but in reality how many old white or black women would be carrying knives, so why target them? Therefore unless the information is allowed to be used why have it? 

 

I see this as 2 separate problems:

1) where is the likely crime and who is likely to commit it?

2) what should we do based on (1)?

 

I guess it's (2) that the public will always see and judge on, but that doesn't make understanding (1) wrong...

[Alan France]

According to the web site Fullfact stop and search peaked in 2008/09 at 1.5m.

 

The current PM, when she was home secretary, introduced stricter rules to the stop-and-search policy in 2014, which meant police forces had to prove they had reasonable grounds before carrying out a search. That resulted in further reductions. Figures for 2017/18 showed 280k searches. However in March 2019 TM did a U turn, mainly reacting to increased knife crime and stop and search increased.

 

A couple of further interesting facts according to Fullfact.

 

9% of stops and searches resulted in an arrest in 2008/9. In 2017/18 that proportion had increased to 17% (Better data and intelligence?)

Across England and Wales 30% of stop and searches had a positive outcome in 2017/18.

 

Goodbye Mrs. May!