Ukraine

[Norman Verona]

When the trouble started in Kiev (which culminated in the illegal removal of the democratically elected president) I said to HM that Russia would take back the Crimea as it's their only warm water port and they have their Black Sea fleet based there. I also said the the US will get involved and I could see the whole thing ending up in a war.

 

 

My view is the US should keep out, it's a European issue and doesn't affect the US

The opportunity has gone now but the EU should have brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine to "sell" the Crimea back to Russia and cast iron guarantees that there would be no further involvement by Russia in Ukrainian affairs. Also that Russia accept the non-democratic changes taking place.

 

After all the Crimea was Russian, and has a majority of Russians living there. 

[Stuart]

My big lad has been in Kiev the last 2 weeks - will get some feedback from him when he gets back on Saturday.  I'm sure it's not that simple though Norm - eastern Ukraine is predominantly Russian too.  As are parts of Lithunia, Latvia and Estonia.

[Rusty Nuts]

World politricks are a complex affair one day you are riding around on your favourite camel through the Al-Ṣaḥrā and the next minute you’re driving an armoured Toyota with a pintle mounted gun overthrowing your government / dictator. One day you are the Taliban freedom fighters fighting the Russian army, next day you are the terrorist blowing up anything that moves or doesn’t move for that matter.

Way too complex for me to worry about.

[Norman Verona]

Stuart, that's why a deal could have been done where Russia would have gained the Crimea but not agitated for the "Russian" East of the Ukraine.

 

 

Rusty, this isn't about that sort of terrorism. The Crimea morally belongs to Russia. It mattered not whilst the Ukraine was an ally. However by the EU making overtures to the Ukraine Russia had little option but to take back ownership of the Crimea.

 

 

Another point is why did the EU make overtures to the Ukraine. Do we need a country who settles its political differences by having mini civil wars. I know I wouldn't want them in my club.

[Rab (bombero) Reid]

Sorry Norm but have to disagree with you entirely on this. What the hell do you mean 'broker a deal'? We're talking about an ethnic population being punted about and sold to the highest bidder. Let the Crimea decide and I mean true Crimeans not artificially bloated by migrant Russians. Look at the hoohah Cameron is having over Scotland independence.

Nothing is cast iron. Okay, so let's say that Russia promises not to get involved in Ukrainian politics. They go back on their promise .. then what happens?? We stand about shaking our heads and tutting at the naughty Russians!!

[Rab (bombero) Reid]

@Norm, maybe it's getting late and/or you're on a leg pull but I just read your post again and think you're on a wind-up surely! lol!

I vote Scotland takes back Northumberland .. after all, it's Scottish anyway before the Romans came. I'm a little unsure about Ireland .. should we invade Eire as part of the UK or just give back NI as it's theirs anyway. Please cast your votes!

Back on-topic ;-) trouble brewed up in Kiev (understandably due to population density), about the oppressive manifestos of the Central Russian government and the Ukrainians had had enough. All of a sudden, Russia seizes this moment of internal unrest to land grab .. it's happened down the centuries.

[Norman Verona]

Bombero, The Crimean was Russian until Khrushchev (reportedly when drunk) gave it the Ukraine. The majority of the people who live there are genuine Russians or descendants of genuine Russians. It didn't matter much whilst the Ukraine was part of the USSR or after the demise of the USSR the Ukraine government looked East and not West. 

 

Following overtures from the EU and a deal being placed on the table a section of Ukrainians wanted to join the EU. The democratically elected President didn't but want to stay aligned to Russia. The people who wanted to join the EU then proceeded and armed attempt to overthrow the elected government.  

 

I've read extensively about 20th century history, mainly politics. History shows the Russians do keep their word if treated fairly. One very good example was the unofficial agreement between Churchill and Stalin about "Zones of influence" in post war Europe. When communists Greeks tried to forcibly take over Greece at the end of the war they appealed to Stalin for assistance. None was forthcoming, British troops quelled the insurrection and  democratic elections were held.

 

The other side of what you say is that we should have kept India and the rest of the commonwealth.

 

The charge of the Light Brigade was in the Crimea. We were fighting Russia. It was "given" to Ukraine in the 1950's. This gift was a hollow gesture at the time as the USSR still controlled it.

 

 

I don't expect everyone to agree with me but there is a strong argument for what I've said when you consider that the alternative is that we may well end up supporting one side in a war.

[jeff oakley]

This situation is very complicated and as always politics are the driving force. The EU wanted to reduce the strength of Russian influence so made offers to the Ukrainian government, a democratically elected government which the world agreed with. The government weighed up the options and felt that they were better off staying out of the EU and keeping the support of Russia. A small young section of the Ukrainian people wanted to join the EU and overthrew the Government with Violence.

 

Russia had an agreement to have the Crimean sea ports to use which they had concern at loosing as the West would have loved to deprive them of access to the Med.

What did the EU thing Russia would do?

The people of Crimea had a referendum which was a resounding success and they requested to join Russia. Now this does not sit well with The EU so they say it is corrupt and the usual rubbish.

 

Buoyed by this other areas who want to remain with Russia start to break down and civil war looks likely. 

 

The West are now stuck with a choice, do something or do something. Unlike other countries Russia has massive war capabilities and will use them if attacked, the EU has little to offer against it so it would be the USA to do the fighting, that will not happen.

William Haughe says they will be isolated, so what, so is North Korea, China was etc. Isolated today welcomed tomorrow. Putin could cripple the West tomorrow by turning off the gas and oil that we rely on.

Putin must be a poker player, he waited until he had the cards he wanted, waited until the rest went all in with a bad hand and is slowly slapping his hand down.

 

The best that can be hoped for is that the civil war is short and the loss of life limited. Russia is now back at the top of the league because we picked side in a fight that could not be won by pro EU Ukrainians. 

[Norman Verona]

Jeff, exactly correct and better put than me.

 

However I do seriously believe that a deal could have been brokered by the EU (without US involvement - at all) to exchange Crimea for something tangible plus a treaty for no further influence.

 

We had 50 years of fear called a "cold war" because we didn't fully understand the USSR's intentions after the war. The US thought that USSR would attack Western Europe for territorial gains whereas we now are beginning to understand that what they were doing was maintaining a buffer zone between them and Germany. If your country had been attacked twice in 25 years and the second time between 30 and 50 million of your people had been slaughtered you may have done the same.  

[Rab (bombero) Reid]

Fair point guys but they're are no innocents in this .. or any political turmoil I hasten to add!

There's certainly a lot of anti-US sentiment out there and growing, especially in (Western) Europe and the UK; their govt are certainly not my flavour of the month and agree that they should keep out of European business (can't resist a pop at the Commies, (would be their attitude) I guess).

As for the violent protests .. not ideal but not always for a bad cause!! Whilst I don't condone it, violence has sometimes been the only solution against unfair treatment.

[Norman Verona]

Bombero, the solution lies in the ballot box. It never lies in armed insurrection in a democratic society. If guns are the answer then democracy has failed. The sad part of this is the the West condoned it. The tragedy is the same people who condoned it now accuse Russia of taking back what was hers and without armed violence but through the ballot box.  

[NVP66S]

This situation is very complicated and as always politics are the driving force. The EU wanted to reduce the strength of Russian influence so made offers to the Ukrainian government, a democratically elected government which the world agreed with. The government weighed up the options and felt that they were better off staying out of the EU and keeping the support of Russia. A small young section of the Ukrainian people wanted to join the EU and overthrew the Government with Violence.

 

Jeff: Thanks for the summary. You've cut through a huge amount of partisan reporting from the media.