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UK's earliest covid case?


DonPeffers

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4 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

If all four Home Countries are following the same science I struggle to understand the difference between Scotland and Wales where Scotland introduced face mask wearing in shops from 10 July  but  Wales will only start from next Monday 14 Sep

 

The devolved administrations think they are showing how independent they are by not following Westminster. Irresepctive of what the various decisions are, it seems to me that people have relaxed too early. Our initial lockdown success is being squandered.

 

4 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

IIRC the first manned Mars landing mission is for 2031 and it's one-way only.  Will that be a problem?

 

If the virus is still prevalent in 2031, a one-way Mars trip will be preferable :d 

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I wonder if BJ's £100Bn plan is for him to take the Mars flight?

 

Seen online from 24 july 2020 (date England made wearing face masks in shops compulsory--with exceptions)  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8558503/Naked-man-seen-strutting-Oxford-Street-face-mask-G-string-Ninja-Warrior.html   gent has wrong idea of how to wear a mask.

 

31166288-8556949-image-m-36_159562739955

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Today  "No trace of a test: Not one slot available in top 10 hotpsots"

 

https://www.metro.news/home-office-minister-encourages-public-to-report-neighbours-to-police/2146992/

 

"THE government’s self-proclaimed ‘world-beating’ coronavirus testing system was last night branded a ‘shambles’ after people living in England’s ten top Covid-19 hotspots found it impossible to book an appointment.

No slots were available online — whether walk-in, drive-through or home test deliveries — in Blackburn, Bolton, Bradford, Oldham, Pendle, Preston, Rochdale, Salford, Tameside and Manchester, which have the country’s highest infection rates.

Even NHS workers are struggling to access testing, with some trusts facing staff shortages as employees are forced to self isolate while awaiting results.

Hospitals in Bristol, Leeds and London have raised concerns about the lack of tests available for key workers. Both prime minister Boris Johnson and health secretary Matt Hancock have hailed the testing system — outsourced to a body led by Baroness Dido Harding — as ‘world-beating’. But shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth said it was ‘not just any shambles… but a world-beating shambles.’ "

 

Apparently problems with laboratories means tests are being sent to Italy and Germany for processing hence delayed results which were highlighted yesterday by Scotland's FM at the covid briefing, as positive covid case figures were incomplete (same for all the Home Nations).

 

As a second wave could be taking off (3000 new cases daily) we need the test and trace to work effectively and promptly to gauge how serious the problem is. The test drive-in centres run by Deloitte and Serco seem to be doing extremely few tests!!!!

 

Worrying.

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The worrying thing is that the average bubble size in "Blackburn, Bolton, Bradford, Oldham, Pendle, Preston, Rochdale, Salford, Tameside" is 30+.

Muslims with large families are causing the problem in those areas............

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4 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

Apparently problems with laboratories

The problems I heard was that up until now quite a few labs had been relying on med-school pupils to help with processing the tests, and now they're all heading back to school so there is a staff shortage. If tests are being shipped abroad does that not demonstrate that there are more tests than there are people to process them? I'm not suggesting that's a good thing...

And if Serco and Deloitte are doing few tests does that not suggest that people aren't coming to be tested, rather than some fundamental shortage that can be pinned on the Government? Craig's comment has merit. I live very close to one of the largest Hindu/Sikh/Muslim communities in the country and it's fantastic for all sorts of reasons, but I also see large family groups in the shops and in the parks. Use of masks and social distancing is patchy at best and this does worry me.

As I said elsewhere, this deep into the pandemic surely some of the blame must be laid at the feet of the people as much as the government.

 

And on the subject of masks, I cam across this today and if it's right then this should be on the news!!!

 

 

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On 15/09/2020 at 19:42, Blatman said:

The problems I heard was that up until now quite a few labs had been relying on med-school pupils to help with processing the tests, and now they're all heading back to school so there is a staff shortage. 

 

And if Serco and Deloitte are doing few tests does that not suggest that people aren't coming to be tested, rather than some fundamental shortage that can be pinned on the Government? 

 

As I said elsewhere, this deep into the pandemic surely some of the blame must be laid at the feet of the people as much as the government.

 

 

 

 

Yes Blatman, I too had heard that medical staff returning to Universities had created a staff shortage at testing labs. This should have been foreseen and action taken earlier.

 

TV interviews of people at a walk-in  test centre stated one site only had 100 tests and that was early in the day. Also big problems with test booking website algorithm offering tests in Aberdeen to London inhabitants. Some Nottingham residents obtained a local test by inputting a Scottish postcode.

Who wrote the algorithm; a Minister's 8 year old child?

 

The public are now attending walk-in test centres and queuing as seen on TV or as reported are visiting GPs and A & E requesting covid test. Bear in mind that in July, Dido Harding said anyone wanting a test should go for a test.

 

03 June,  Boris pledged all test results would be available within 24 hrs by end of June, yet now only 7.9% of results are available in 24 hrs with the average time now 83 hrs thus holding up folks getting back to work if isolating with symptoms and also potentially allowing more virus spread if people don't isolate properly because of lack of earnings or selfishness.

 

I find it bizarre that in virus hotspots pubs can still open until 10pm.

 

A TV interviewer asked a lady and gent in a posh German saloon why they had come for a test. The lady said they had no symptoms but wanted to check as going on holiday in 4 days time. Just wasting resources! 

 

Now the threat of a second lockdown with, no doubt, further vast cost, economic damage, job losses, hospitals stopping non-covid treatments etc...

 

Even a second lockdown is IMO unlikely to eradicate the virus.

 

Vietnam (ok Communist Country so just obey) with median age 30 years had until recently no covid deaths no doubt helped by youthful population and widespread face mask use. 35 deaths to date https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/viet-nam/

 

I reckon getting back to work while protecting the vulnerable (plenty data now available regarding risk profiles (age, pre-existing, ethnicity) is the only viable way forward but happy to read others views.

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2 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

The lady said they had no symptoms but wanted to check as going on holiday in 4 days time. Just wasting resources! 

Or a condition of the airline with whom they are travelling or their destination country/hotel/whatever. Are there so many people travelling and wanting tests that they are having an impact on the entire testing system?

 

2 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

03 June,  Boris pledged all test results would be available within 24 hrs by end of June, yet now only 7.9% of results are available in 24 hrs with the average time

The stat on the 12 mid-day news today was that 60-something percent of test results were delivered in 24 hours, down from 80-something percent a couple of weeks ago, no doubt in some part due to the staff shortages mentioned earlier.

 

2 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

I find it bizarre that in virus hotspots pubs can still open until 10pm

Why? As long as social distancing is observed and people utilise car park/gardens etc to enjoy a pint rather than pack themselves in cheek-by-jowl what's the problem? Same goes for ANY retail business. The problem is not that they are allowed to open. The problem is the patrons are not following simple basic hygiene rules. Yesterday I went to a Euro Car Parts shop. They have all the signs that are expected these days about social distancing and masks and hand sanitizer. Of the 4 people in the shop and the 8 queue-ing outside, I was the only one wearing a mask. Normally I'd say something but 11/1 odds is too much even for me! But worse, the staff were not actively engaging their customers with advice or offering alternative ways to serve, like staying outside and using the "trade" door adjacent to the shop counter.

But this is everywhere I go most of the time at the moment. People not wearing masks are a SIGNIFICANT proportion. Add them to the idiots who don't cover their noses with the mask and we're at about 50/50.

 

2 hours ago, DonPeffers said:

TV interviews of people at a walk-in  test centre stated one site only had 100 tests and that was early in the day.

Tests have to be booked though, right? So if they had a hundred tests, surely they're expecting 100 customers, with a margin for foul ups?

Or is it the case that we can just rock up to a test centre and get in line? If that is the case how does each test centre plan for the day/week ahead. Cos I GUARANTEE if a test centre had a thousand unused tests at the end of the day there would be stories of bad test planning or some boroughs hogging resources or some such. 

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22 hours ago, Blatman said:

Or a condition of the airline with whom they are travelling or their destination country/hotel/whatever. Are there so many people travelling and wanting tests that they are having an impact on the entire testing system?

 

The stat on the 12 mid-day news today was that 60-something percent of test results were delivered in 24 hours, down from 80-something percent a couple of weeks ago, no doubt in some part due to the staff shortages mentioned earlier.

 

Why? As long as social distancing is observed and people utilise car park/gardens etc to enjoy a pint rather than pack themselves in cheek-by-jowl what's the problem? Same goes for ANY retail business. The problem is not that they are allowed to open. The problem is the patrons are not following simple basic hygiene rules. Yesterday I went to a Euro Car Parts shop. They have all the signs that are expected these days about social distancing and masks and hand sanitizer. Of the 4 people in the shop and the 8 queue-ing outside, I was the only one wearing a mask. Normally I'd say something but 11/1 odds is too much even for me! But worse, the staff were not actively engaging their customers with advice or offering alternative ways to serve, like staying outside and using the "trade" door adjacent to the shop counter.

But this is everywhere I go most of the time at the moment. People not wearing masks are a SIGNIFICANT proportion. Add them to the idiots who don't cover their noses with the mask and we're at about 50/50.

 

Tests have to be booked though, right? So if they had a hundred tests, surely they're expecting 100 customers, with a margin for foul ups?

Or is it the case that we can just rock up to a test centre and get in line? If that is the case how does each test centre plan for the day/week ahead. Cos I GUARANTEE if a test centre had a thousand unused tests at the end of the day there would be stories of bad test planning or some boroughs hogging resources or some such. 

If someone wants a covid test to travel abroad then as per Gov. covid website they need to book a private test and pay for it.

 

Plenty news items showing pubs packed, no social distancing and some pubs not taking contact details which will soon (belatedly) become a legal requirement.

 

People turned up with bookings at a Sunderland test centre to find it had been dismantled without warning!!! 

 

Sky news covid test figures broken down over five 'test site' types  17 sep 2020 https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-positive-covid-19-tests-double-since-test-and-trace-launch-latest-figures-show-12073898

You need to click on the clink and see the graph to 'mouse hover' over the end of the line to see the covid test results percentages which displays results as follows:-    09 sep 2020----

Mobile test units 38.4% in 24 hrs----Local test sites 20.4% in 24 hrs----Home test kits 9.3% in 48 hrs----Satellite test centres 3.9% in 48 hrs----Regional test sites 37.9% in 24hrs.

 

The 24 hr average apparently equates to 25% overall.

 

Regarding test and trace.. Sky  "The numbers show that 82.6% of those people were reached and asked to provide information about their contacts.

In total, 73.9% of those contacts were successfully reached and asked to self-isolate, which is similar to the levels seen from mid-July onwards."

Meaning 82.6% times 73.9% equals 61% successfully traced, thus leaving 4 out of 10 potentially infected contacts untraced.

 

Covid contact trace mobile app released in N.I. 30 Jul 2020, Scotland 10 sep 2020 and England scheduled for 24 sep 2020, should all help.

 

I am concerned that many TV interviews with those complaining about not being able to get a test FAIL to ask the complainer what symptoms they have as I would have thought that was basic journalism. I've seen about 8 on TV seemingly well, not presenting any cough let alone continuous cough.

 

The manual labs are going to struggle to meet demand but good news with a new automated 90 minute test called covid-nudge  https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-test-90-minute-results-covid-nudge-device-uk-imperial-b467761.html

 

 

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1 hour ago, DonPeffers said:

I am concerned that many TV interviews with those complaining about not being able to get a test FAIL to ask the complainer what symptoms they have as I would have thought that was basic journalism.

 

70-something percent of Covid-19 infections are asymptomatic. It's a wasted question for a journo when the answer from anyone with half a brain is "how do I know I'm infected or not if I don't develop symptoms?" The only way to KNOW is to get tested. The journo only has a very few minutes to get his/her face on screen. Wasting that time with a question that doesn't take the narrative forwards is bad for their show reel and won't make for headlines that earn clicks.

 

With regards to the number I corrected myself on the numbers in the long post yesterday. It seems the numbers on the radio at noon were more than a week out of date which was not helpful...

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