What hope for Brexit negotiations?

[Man On The Clapham Omnibus]

I went to a p***-up in a brewery last week! You'll have to guess which is me - no I'm not female!

[Alan France]

Looks like Marlow Brewery, great place.

[Thrustyjust]

2 hours ago, Man On The Clapham Omnibus said:

I went to a p***-up in a brewery last week! You'll have to guess which is me - no I'm not female!

Are you ZZ Top on the left ?

[Weekend Warrior]

38 minutes ago, Thrustyjust said:

Are you ZZ Top on the left ?

Could have been a music night , 

Shane McGowan gives it the thumbs up 

[Blatman]

11 hours ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

Easy to say if your someone or a company not depending on free trade with Europe or your job isnt controlled and regulated by a European wide regulatory body which we are about to fall out of. My work license is about to become as worthless as the a4 sheet of paper it's typed on

I spend about 6 to 8 months of the year in mainland europe in a heavily regulated industry. None of those regulations are going to change. Yes I may have to pay a fee as mentioned in the tabloids but that fee is coming whether we remain or not but that won't change the work or how it is regulated when I am sat at my desk in Holland or France or Germany or wherever.

[Steve (sdh2903)]

Lucky you. For people in my industry will lose around the possibility of 75-80% scope of work across Europe with a no deal brexit. 

[Blatman]

Based on what? I'm not trying to be contrary. I would like to know more about how these numbers are arrived at. I am a confirmed Brexiteer but that doesn't mean I am closed minded and I am sure we could all do with some actual facts rather than political rhetoric on the impact of a no deal compared to a bad deal compared to remaining.

 

[Steve (sdh2903)]

Based on the advice issued on the civil aviation authority site.

I'm a licensed aircraft engineer holding an Easa license (issued by the UK CAA). This entitles me to work and certify on aircraft registered in any Easa state ie most of Europe. If under no deal I will have this entitlement taken away. I will hold a UK licence able to certify on UK aircraft only.  My company has aircraft based and registered across Europe and they send their aircraft to the UK for heavy maintenance bringing in money and jobs to the UK. So it looks like we will end up having to gain European licences and approvals and be governed by whichever foreign aviation authority. Look at the registrations of the next EasyJet aircraft you fly on. You'll see there already shifting half their company to Austria. A UK born success story having to decamp to Europe to protect its operation.

Quoted directly from the Caa same for pilots aswell. Not just engineers.

• UK issued licences and approvals (issued when the UK was an EASA member) will continue to have validity under UK law but will no longer be recognised by EASA for use on EASA Member State-registered aircraft. 

A no deal brexit is going to have such a massive effect on the airline industry as a whole. And this is one industry. How many others will be squeezed back into Europe? Toyota Nissan honda what's left of Vauxhall?

A close friend runs a small successful business who's trade is made up of 75% exports to europe. His sales are down 40% this year due to the hysteria about what 'might' happen.

Now I voted remain and would again however I can see and respect the views of the exiters and in some ways agree with some of the views of the exit. However we need to do this With a deal. We need our elected and taxpayer funded government to stop acting like petulant children and get a deal put together.

[Thrustyjust]

Steve, wasnt BMW going to take Mini from Cowley and back to Germany as well ?

[TAFKARM]

Im in Business Aviation, echo Steve comments...

[Steve (sdh2903)]

1 hour ago, Thrustyjust said:

Steve, wasnt BMW going to take Mini from Cowley and back to Germany as well ?

I can't see how any major European company would keep production here in the event of a no deal exit. Why would they fight and pay to get parts over the border to the factory?

If the UK want to buy the cars they'll have to pay the premiums involved.

BMW have already said there shutting down earlier this year to save any production interruptions.

[DonPeffers]

On 17/12/2018 at 14:52, DonPeffers said:

17 Dec 2018  https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1060106/brexit-news-robert-peston-theresa-may-david-cameron-adviser-no-deal     

"BREXIT BOMBSHELL: Cameron unmasked as May's SECRET advisor - 'a symbol of CATASTROPHE!'"

What could possibly go wrong?

Latest-- Published: 18:39 Monday 17 December 2018   https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/theresa-may-denies-david-cameron-giving-her-brexit-advice-1-4845322

Theresa May denies David Cameron giving her Brexit advice.

[DonPeffers]

2 hours ago, Steve (sdh2903) said:

Based on the advice issued on the civil aviation authority site.

I'm a licensed aircraft engineer holding an Easa license (issued by the UK CAA). This entitles me to work and certify on aircraft registered in any Easa state ie most of Europe. If under no deal I will have this entitlement taken away. I will hold a UK licence able to certify on UK aircraft only.  My company has aircraft based and registered across Europe and they send their aircraft to the UK for heavy maintenance bringing in money and jobs to the UK. So it looks like we will end up having to gain European licences and approvals and be governed by whichever foreign aviation authority. Look at the registrations of the next EasyJet aircraft you fly on. You'll see there already shifting half their company to Austria. A UK born success story having to decamp to Europe to protect its operation.

Quoted directly from the Caa same for pilots aswell. Not just engineers.

• UK issued licences and approvals (issued when the UK was an EASA member) will continue to have validity under UK law but will no longer be recognised by EASA for use on EASA Member State-registered aircraft. 

A no deal brexit is going to have such a massive effect on the airline industry as a whole. And this is one industry. How many others will be squeezed back into Europe? Toyota Nissan honda what's left of Vauxhall?

A close friend runs a small successful business who's trade is made up of 75% exports to europe. His sales are down 40% this year due to the hysteria about what 'might' happen.

Now I voted remain and would again however I can see and respect the views of the exiters and in some ways agree with some of the views of the exit. However we need to do this With a deal. We need our elected and taxpayer funded government to stop acting like petulant children and get a deal put together.

I noticed the following:-

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/17/uk-aerospace-firms-apply-for-eu-regulation-ahead-of-no-deal-brexit

&   https://www.easa.europa.eu/brexit  Update 30/11/2018 - related to contingency action plan in the event of a no deal scenario with the UK.  Mentions EASA certificates post no deal Brexit.

EASA's 32 members include 4 outside EU---Iceland, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Norway.

If new job licences were required could the expense be offset against tax?

Regarding a good deal (rather than any deal) the EU know Mrs May's position is weak after the disastrous, unnecessary 2017 General Election Mrs M called resulting in 33 Tory MPs losing their seats and the PM losing her Commons majority. In any negotiation the other side has to believe you will walk away otherwise they won't negotiate fully.

I am no expert on your profession Steve and hope all turns out for the best for you, Russ H and colleagues.

 

[jeff oakley]

This was always going to be the case that certain industries would be picked on and that used as a lever. The EU had and has no intention of making it a smooth transition as they fear the break up of the EU. The signs are there as the far right are gaining momentum on the back of immigration and especially in places like Germany and the Nordic states where crime has risen directly as a result of immigration and the dictates of the EU on internal matters, speak with Greeks and Italians to see how they feel being treated like naughty kids.

You have to look at it this way, do the EU have the capacity to fix every plane, in short no so they will find a way to allow the aviation industry to continue and harmonization of technical certification will happen, the same as in medicine and other areas.

Jobs have been lost to the EU for years, especially in manufacturing, where grants awarded to Hungary and Poland have seen thriving British Business move to there with the loss of thousands of jobs over the years, funded by money we give them from the EU pot. No one was crying about that it was progress, we were told.

The EU have proved they are bullies and lie, the UK politicians are just liars and haven't got an answer to the EU's position, will we leave with no deal, it looks increasingly likely but for how long will they EU not want to sell to us? Also other countries want to deal with us again, the commonwealth, who we abandoned trade wise when we joined the EEC, are keen once again.

If there is no deal, a government with a backbone would drop corporation tax and make the UK a low tax haven for EU business, business cares not about anything other than money which is why one of the clauses in the withdrawal document is demanding we do not do that, the EU know that countries like Southern Ireland and Luxembourg have prospered at our expense by offering international companies tax status there. There is lots we can do once out and the picture is clear but be in no doubt the fault of all this lies with the EU. The refusal to offer Cameron anything to stop the rise of UKIP and to stem the tide of immigration of people with no skills to the UK led to him offering a referendum. It should never have been called and by trying to negotiate with the EU we have dragged out the inevitable. It would have almost been worth Labour winning the election to see then try to sort out the mess Cameron caused, but as it is May has got an impossible job, attacked by all sides of her party,attacked by the media worldwide and the EU if we come out with any deal it will have been down to her. Whether that will be a good thing is arguable and what some miss is what is on the table is just the transition deal. 

We will undoubtedly feel pain all of us in pensions, investments but we will grow again and have a say in our future and perhaps that is a pain worth enduring for a while

[Blatman]

On 18/12/2018 at 13:04, Steve (sdh2903) said:

UK issued licences and approvals (issued when the UK was an EASA member) will continue to have validity under UK law but will no longer be recognised by EASA for use on EASA Member State-registered aircraft. 

Is the reverse also true? I fly EasyJet A LOT and rarely hear a UK accent from the cockpit or cabin crew. Will their licences also be not recognised in a  reciprocal arrangement? I doubt that is sustainable as Geoff notes. We aren't seeing both sides of the story here. I suspect our side aren't saying much as (I hope) they realise that now is not the time to burn bridges. Oh the irony...

 

On 18/12/2018 at 13:04, Steve (sdh2903) said:

If under no deal I will have this entitlement taken away.

IF is what stands out for me there. This is not definitive and this is really my point. Any equivocation and we open ourselves up to the fundamental argument put forwards by remainers who are ruthlessly playing on our natural fear of the unknown. Project fear and the remain media like to use the "...may affect xxxx..." But surely the opposite is just as "true", IE it may NOT affect xxxxx, or better yet "....will have a positive effect...." People read "...may cause a recession..." and yet seem to read that as "...WILL cause recession..." or "...may cause jobs to be lost..." turns into "...jobs WILL be lost..." in the public perception. But by the same token leaving could have a positive effect on some or all of these things. 

I also agree with Geoff in that no deal opens up the rest of the world. How many countries would want to align themselves with the 5th biggest economy in the world? We have money to spend. And lets remember we got to be 5th in spite of the EU, not because of it. Imagine how much further up the table we would be if we could keep the money we send to the EU, have control over our laws, trade, borders etc. 

If we leave with no deal, do we get to keep the 39 billion "divorce" payment? I hope we can and I REALLY hope we can find a politician with guts to say "no play, no pay" to the EU. Imagine how much better the NHS would be if we could divert that 39 BILLION to the NHS. That would be quite the windfall. Or perhaps that 39 billion could be used to support the costs of CAA/EASA licence acceptance, maybe help with the sciences which Dombanks was all doom and gloom about but which seems to have disappeared. Or maybe we can use some of it for the armed forces and security? Maybe pay down the deficit or fund more social care programs. All that sounds good to me!